“I think that settling the ISIS fight in W Iraq will be the next tipping point.”
Those tribes in the Anbar are so deeply indoctrinated with Wahhabism, it might take a generation to pass away, like the violent racism of the KKK in the South. They might be militarily subdued though for some time, if they don’t get foreign support (Turks, Gulf States).
Are military operations progressing well enough to achieve a significant pacification there, at some point soon?
The Anbar tribes are mostly in it for the money. They have a long history of smuggling, shakedowns, highway robbery, and “security”. They are the sunni mafia. ISIS pays and has paid them very well.
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When the ISIS money is gone, things will quiet way down and the tribes will go back to shaking down the shia/Iranian rat line arms smuggling.
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There are Salafist hot beds in Fallujah and Ramadi, but money is the driver.