Posted on 04/25/2020 4:34:19 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
Interesting. Thanks. Not to add to your burden BUT can you break out each urban center that is having it’s own epidemic and graph those? NYC, Detroit, Chicago, etc.?
TOTAL TESTS-—
Yesterday, the USA reached another milestone by having conducted over 5 million tests (5,015,602).
I have a couple of comments:
1. Does anyone have the number of total tests that were reported each day since April 1st? The reason I ask is that we are continuing to see a large number of new cases. I suspect the reason for the new cases is the increase in daily testing since April 1st. But I do not have the numbers to confirm.
2. Gov Ron DeSantis in his daily press briefing brought up the subject of testing and retesting. Here is how it works. If a person tests positive and is sent home, they must be retested in 14 days to see if they are still positive. And if they test positive again, they must come back in 7 days to be tested a 3rd time. So Gov DeSantis was warning people that just because 300,000 tests have been given in Florida, it does not mean that 300,000 people have been tested in Florida..
What Gov DeSantis wants the Florida State Health Dept to do is to separate the ‘first time’ test results from the ‘2nd or 3rd’ retest results.
By making that change, the State of Florida officials and its residents can have a better understanding of the percent of people tested the ‘first time’ who were positive or negative.
As an example, it is one thing to say that 500,000 test results came in today.
Versus saying that 500,000 test results came in today and 100,000 were from people who were tested for the first time and 400,000 were from people who had been tested multiple times.
Another Truthtful Doctor: Bill Gates, Fauci, and Birx criminals. Fake Pandemic, for VACCINE/CHIP YOU
https://www.facebook.com/100017164360009/videos/635767063672100/
It annoys me each day here in Florida when the agenda driven media begins their coverage with the blanket number of “new” cases by reporting it as a static number. If one digs into the full report posted on line one finds there is a stat called the percentage of positive tests. That percentage has been drifting down each day for almost ten days to now being 9.5%. IOW while there are new cases that number MUST be much lowier than before as the denominator is a big number going in. Furthermore we are still mostly testing people with some kind of symptom. ~1000 people have died in fl from this chink weapon. Tragic for them and their loved ones for sure but does that mean we need stay in our closets forever? For comparison two people were killed on Rte 95 near me. Does that infer I should stay off that road or only drive it in an abrams? The mask thing is really getting to me. Someone noted yesterday if jeans and undies cannot contain a fart how is a piece of material going to contain a virus.
Trump talked about that in the last day or two, the
declining number of positives...
The recovered number will never reflect a true number until this is pretty much over.
We’ll have to subtract the deaths from total cases and assume the rest recovered.
Our state has come right out and said they don’t track recovered cases. I wonder how well other states are tracking the ones set home with mild cases.
Not sure about that either.
If there are numbers reported, I capture them. I’m not
holding my breath while they prove helpful.
We are fortunate to have a governor in Florida who stays on top of the situation and is not afraid to tell the health department bureaucrats at the state, county, and city level to get off their butts and give him meaningful numbers.
Florida is currently testing about 15,000 people per day. If 5,000 of those test results are from people who have NEVER been tested before and 1000 came back positive, then we have a big problem.
On the other hand, if 5,000 of those test results are from people who have NEVER been tested before and 100 came back positive, then we have a manageable problem.
When the heath bureaucrats mix the first time tests with the retests, we really do not know how big the problem is.
Good for our Governor DeSantis to shed some light on this problem and I am confident he will get it fixed pronto!!!!!
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 14 Tue 13473
Apr 15 Wed 13487
Apr 16 Thu 13369
Apr 17 Fri 13509
Apr 18 Sat 13551
Apr 19 Sun 13566
Apr 20 Mon 13951
Apr 21 Tue 14016
Apr 22 Wed 14016
Apr 23 Thu 14997
Apr 24 Fri 15097
We had a plateauing of serious/critical cases at 13,500 from April 14 thru April 19. And then a 500 patient jump on Monday . And Thursday we had a 1000 patient increase.
I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical data: “Today, it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”
I am hoping the reason behind this recent 1,500 patient increase in serious/critical patients is due to the fact hospitals have many vacant ICU beds. If I were the hospital administrator it would be reasonable to move a covid patient from a regular hospital bed to ICU as they get more care and oversight.
What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying. Unfortunately, neither is happening.
I also truncated the data to keep this posting shorter. Earlier numbers are available in DoughtyOne’s tables.
Offhand I can’t remember how to do it but I do remember there is a statistical method for determine if you are “doing enough tests”. Offhand I would say if the # of tests is 5 times the number of cases that’s probably “enough”.
This is an excerpt posted on FR-—
“””Instead, Atlas wrote, states should craft policies that focus on protecting the elderly and those with chronic underlying conditions. Targeting that segment of the population, although it’s smaller, will have the greatest impact on minimizing hospitalizations (preventing the health care system from becoming overwhelmed) and reducing deaths”””
Many of us ‘numbers’ guys have been saying the same thing.
The ‘at risk’ people in the USA are the ones who have a very high mortality rate if they get infected.
Whereas, the healthy working age population is getting infected, but they are not experiencing bad outcomes.
Healthy people need to go back to work. Healthy children need to go back to school. Vulnerable people need to keep hunkering down.
It does not seem the solution to the problem is any more complex than that.
[Offhand I can’t remember how to do it but I do remember there is a statistical method for determine if you are “doing enough tests”. Offhand I would say if the # of tests is 5 times the number of cases that’s probably “enough”.]
A good post, that elicits the following from me:
1) If the Media ISN’T annoying you, then something is wrong. ;)
2) Almost all of statistical analysis, or the reporting of it, is being done by those voted “best personality” or head cheer leader.
3) If the people killed on the road near you died because the road washed out, you would want it closed, and not forever, just until it was repaired and wasn’t unnecessarily dangerous.
I would bet parts of Dallas and Austin have #s that are quite different from “The rest of Texas”. I grew up just West of “West Texas”. I’d bet that region has no virus at all. The oil patch guys could probably go back to work if there was someplace to store the oil.
bttt
“””The oil patch guys could probably go back to work if there was someplace to store the oil.”””
There would be no reason to store the oil as it would be consumed by all workers going back to work.
It does not seem the solution to the problem is any more complex than that.
They could also probably handle a return to normalcy with the threat of the virus eliminated. I suspect that this is what they are angling for.
Your idea of “go back to work” with the threat of the virus still present, is far more complex than you realize. Let me give some examples:
1) Work, with health insurance? How does that work? Who would ensure?
2) Liability? Business would be sued by people contracting this.
3) How can the vulnerable actually be protected with the virus spreading freely among the “healthy” with which they must interact?
I think that, actually and sadly, some bright minds have thought about this a little, and what we are doing is the best they could come up with.
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