On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
Apr 3 Fri 5787
Apr 4 Sat 8206
Apr 5 Sun 8702
Apr 6 Mon 8879
Apr 7 Tue 9169
Apr 8 Wed 9279
Apr 9 Thu 10,011
Apr 10 Fri 10916
Apr 11 Sat 11471
Apr 12 Sun 11766
Apr 13 Mon 12722
Apr 14 Tue 13473
Apr 15 Wed 13487
Apr 16 Thu 13369
On Wednesday the number of serious and critical cases only increased by 14 patients.
Yesterday, the number of serious and critical cases DECLINED by 118 patients.
While that is great news two days in a row, we need to keep in mind that about 4500 people died Weds and Thur.
What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying.
The slowdown in critical/serious cases is confirmed by Trump’s task force who are saying there are plenty of empty ICU and Regular hospital beds.
On Apr 9, when I first started tracking US numbers separately from world numbers, the US death rate was 3.42%. Today, it is 4.96%. It will continue to grow until all cases are resolved. As of 2 hours ago, 86.7% of diagnosed cases in the US remained active.
I am looking forward to seeing some of the clinical trial data. The sooner a drug regimen is proven effective, the better.