Posted on 04/15/2020 1:19:15 PM PDT by Hojczyk
He added: “I strongly urge that we not let mathematicians — who know nothing about biology — determine when we lift the lockdown.”
Course not. We need to listen to the folks who developed those wonderful models calling for a gazillion dead, then a few million dead and then several hundred thousand dead and then one hundred thousand dead and then eighty thousand dead and then sixty thousand dead and then..
The idiot modelers use guess work while the mathematician studied actual case numbers over a time line and saw it played out similarly i.e. 70 days from start to finish barring unforeseen circumstances such as in Italy.
Even fascist Fauci says the numbers are coming down and he also says once that starts the numbers drop rapidly. Let’s end this nonsense and turn the Nation loose again. Quarantine the most susceptible among us and get on with life.
I kind of agree. It seems that most of these flu-like viruses play themselves out - not entirely, but mostly - within a year or two of their original appearance. But somehow this particular virus is supposed to be the end of civilization as we know it, and permanently change society in innumerable ways.
the media barely noticed any of the following at the time. many Australians were infected while on holiday in Hong Kong (China), yet returned in packed planes, no problem. no warnings from Govt or media about social-distancing etc:
11 Feb: ABC Australia: Flu season which struck down 310,000 Australians ‘worst on record’ due to early outbreaks
ABC Sunshine Coast By Tara Cassidy
Last year, Australia experienced its worst flu season on record, with more than 310,000 people presenting to hospital and health services nationwide.
The figure is seven times greater than Australia’s previous 18-year average...
World Health Organisation (WHO) influenza researcher, Ian Barr, said such aggressive seasons were generally a “one-in-every-10-year occurrence”, but early flu outbreaks had seen Australia go through two in just three years.
He said it is an issue that is hard to predict and one difficult to address with vaccines...
According to Dr Barr, last year’s peak occurred almost two months earlier than normal and researchers have found it difficult to determine the cause.
He believes international travellers played a significant role, but said other factors were also at play...
Queensland Health Minister, Stephen Miles: “We had a record number of summer cases and that elongated the impact on our hospitals through more months of the year, as well as many of our own staff ended up catching the flu.”...
“Given the significant number of cases in March and April — the vaccine isn’t even available during that time, and it normally takes a couple of weeks after being vaccinated to reach peak immunity...
While 2019 saw the highest number of influenza cases across the country, 2017 still holds the record for the highest number of flu-related deaths, with over 1,100 cases.
Last year there were over 900 influenza linked deaths in Australia.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/early-outbreaks-to-blame-for-worst-flu-season-on-record/11949320
read somewhere recently re the above that UK considered banning Australian from entering the country, but US wouldn’t go along with it.
8 Jan 2018: news.com.au: Deadly ‘Australian flu’ infecting thousands in UK
FORGET the Ashes (cricket), Australia is causing even more pain to Britain with a virus that first occurred here causing havoc over there.
by Benedict Brook
The UK is currently in the midst of a health crisis with 4.5 million people claiming to have been laid low with what’s been dubbed “Aussie flu”.
Ireland has also been struck with the Republic’s first death from the virus last week.
The publicly run National Health Service (NHS), which runs the vast majority of UK hospitals, has been forced to cancel thousands of routine operations to make space for up to 200,000 Aussie flu sufferers.
Churches in Northern Ireland have banned the customary sign of peace handshake until the crisis has passed...
However, it’s been dubbed Australian flu not because Australians in the UK — of which there are around 125,000 — are spreading it. Rather, it’s because it’s the same strain of flu that caused such havoc in Australia this winter...
The flu virus regularly mutates and that means it’s a constant battle to provide vulnerable people with protection...
For instance, around 85 per cent of people in Australia who received the flu jab still developed H3N2 if exposed to the strain...
UK Health Minister Jeremy Hunt said the flu virus was pushing the NHS to the limit...
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/deadly-australian-flu-infecting-thousands-in-uk/news-story/4c078e9c89c8d697a6ddfff7a02932df
no lockdowns. no destruction of economies.
The obvious answer would be "herd immunity" - the host developing a resistance to the new infection. Without new 'hosts' the virus can't reproduce and the pandemic dies out.
If so, applying extraordinary measures to avoid exposure only delays the inevitable.
Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, and Hospitalizations Averted by Vaccination
Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do the Flu Vaccines Work?
CDC: Most Children Dying From Flu Not Vaccinated Feb 15, 2018
Herd immunity happens because everyone the virus could spread to already has had it.
My understanding is that the models assume in error that an infected person has the same chance of infecting any person in a given population, i.e. everyone socializes or comes into contact with everyone else equally as often.
Well that’s ridiculous. Real humans socialize within groups based on family/work/school/interests and not in a random fashion.
“Italy has an aged population and a very high population density so these reasons are the reason for the death rate,”
Everyone lives in multi family apartment buildings while the US has mostly single family homes.
Italy’s daily case curve and death rates show his work to be true.
The logarithmic daily case curve has gone flat, Spain and France as well, ours is trending close to flat. Soon those curves will trend downward!!
#OUAN Open up America Now!!
Asked to explain the phenomenon, Ben-Israel, who also heads Israel’s Space Agency, later said: “I have no explanation. There are all kinds of speculations. Maybe it’s related to climate, or the virus has a life-span of its own.”
++
He doesn’t claim to know how, just that the record shows it does ‘play out’ in about 70 days no matter what is done.
But not every person shops at the same stores, much less at the same time, so not randomized and there are people in your community that you will never meet, so can never infect or be infected by.
This confounds the models and the presumed R0 is just a wild ass guess until it’s over and they do antibody testing to discover population penatrance.
this was the scary story to justify the lockdown (which is now far stricter than outlined in this article):
16 Mar: Sydney Morning Herald: Australia prepares for 50,000 to 150,000 coronavirus deaths
By Dana McCauley, Eryk Bagshaw and Rob Harris
Up to 150,000 Australians could die from the coronavirus under a worst case scenario, the Morrison government says, as it considers advice on restricting visits to pubs, cinemas and aged care homes.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said that the number of infections would range between 20 per cent to 60 per cent of the population...
Under the best case scenario of a 20 per cent infection rate, about 50,000 people out of 5 million infected with COVID-19 would die. A moderate scenario of 10 million infections – 40 per cent of the population – would mean 100,000 dead.
In a worst case scenario, 15 million people would get the coronavirus and 150,000 would die...
(Prime MInister) Morrison said the coronavirus was a “one in 100-year event” and slowing the spread of the virus would save lives...
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-prepares-for-50-000-to-150-000-coronavirus-deaths-20200316-p54amn.html
63 deaths to date, something like two thirds acquired overseas:
Australian Govt: Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers
As at 3:00pm on 15 April 2020, there have been 6,447 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 47 new cases since 3:00pm yesterday.
Of the 6,447 confirmed cases in Australia, 63 have died from COVID-19. More than 371,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.
To date, the majority of confirmed cases in all states were acquired overseas...
The majority of Australian confirmed cases acquired their infection overseas, including on board cruise ships or associated with recent travel to Europe or the Americas...
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers
Australians are still being told the lockdown will continue for the full six months announced in March. another problem - Australia now goes into its own flu season.
will the lockdown make our own flu season better or worse?
should we have been building herd immunity rather than imposing the lockdown?
unfortunately, behind paywall, by Australia’s most-read columnist:
16 Apr: Herald Sun: Andrew Bolt: What’s the government waiting for?
Australia’s coronavirus curve is as flat as a pancake, with thousands of empty intensive care beds and a death toll a fraction of what was predicted, so why are we all still living in an oppressive police state, asks Andrew Bolt...
That can’t be. Many folks on this forum believe that they had it in December. More than 100 days have passed since then.
ping to article
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