I have to agree that Trump’s chances are down from what they were in Jan. The reason is simple, when things are going well the country gives the president credit, e.g Bill Clinton had the benefit of a Republican Senate and House who capped spending, cooperative fed and economy did well-Clinton won reelection getting credit for good economy.
Trump may get blamed and what has negatively impacted his latest series of polls on Covid 19 is two things: more deaths,economy tanking (as it would in shut down)-all bad so he gets blamed and even though he has done a good job IMHO he needs to adapt his style more to be more like Pence and spend less time calling out fake news reporters cuz Female voters especially do not like that style at all according to even conservative polls-in today’s task force update it seemed like he got that message, very polite and thanking people-