It turns out that 18 days is merely the result they were looking for aka goal seeking. They set a target and went about finding the date(s) to fit the curve. Speaking of which, I think a lot of people would be surprised at just how flat Italy has been:
Date Day Daily 3/20/2020 29 627 3/21/2020 30 793 3/22/2020 31 650 3/23/2020 32 602 3/24/2020 33 743 3/25/2020 34 683 3/26/2020 35 712 3/27/2020 36 919 3/28/2020 37 889 3/29/2020 38 756 3/30/2020 39 812 3/31/2020 40 837 4/1/2020 41 727 4/2/2020 42 760 4/3/2020 43 766 4/4/2020 44 681This essentially flat day-day plateau is also reflected in US stats if we remove NY, which is now almost 43% of all US total CV deaths (day 36, 2/29-4/4):
![]()
However, the biggest 'tell' of all is how the promoters have moved into negotiation - and a little bit of anger - in trying to rationalize why they were wrong. OTOH, maybe they were actually right, and the results we're now seeing are the result of the lock-down and social distancing policies.
Those are all great topics for discussion, and will launch 1000s of PhD theses in the coming years. But, for now, the main idea is to start living again.
Thanks. Great graph, too. Tells the story in an instant.
IMHO with our mitigation efforts in place this country is flat as you say, minus the NYC area. Lets hope the rest of the country stays that way, NYC burns out and we can begin to emerge after Easter. I do believe I heard Fauci say the top is some 6-7 days away.
Thanks semantic. I look forward to your charts, stats, and opinions/analysis.
The model has not been updated. The hospitalization projections have been way off. They are hiding something or they are changing the model itself.