If you don’t predict it and millions do die, then you really screwed up, and everyone knows it.
If, on the other hand, you predict large numbers of deaths, and everyone gets scared and takes drastic precautions, you can say, see, the precautions worked! We really dodged a bullet there...
You’re right. Its always safer to err on the high side. Underestimating will generally get you into trouble.
Yup. It's a no-lose scenario for the bedwetters. Meanwhile, we all pay the price for their cowardice.