True, but these are models based on certain assumptions. What would happen to those numbers if we develop a therapeutic to combat the virus? There are clinical trials going on now that could be a game changer. And more data will refine the models.
To put this in perspective, we lost 61,000 in a bad flu season.
Thank you for talking me off that ledge. And I believe you’re correct, their estimation likely includes none of the measures we are just starting to implement.
But we both understand what tomorrow’s headlines will read. Perception becoming reality an all that.
How many of deaths are attributed to covid when it really was in conjunction with, say...a heart attack, or a bad surgery outcome? Just wondering
True, but the 80k - 110k figure assumes the actions we are taking now are fairly effective (given their late start).
It does not account for the negative effects of a damaged economy on health care ("Hon, we can barely get by - we have to put Mom in the crappy Medicaid paid nursing home, now."), and health itself (President Trump talked about this yesterday.) In the other direction it also does not allow that the "shutdown" measures should significantly reduce flu, auto accidents, and other causes of fastalities.
There are many other considerations, too, but, I'll leave it at that, for now.
Stay safe!