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Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model
DailyWire.com ^ | March 26th, 2020 | Amanda Prestigiacomo

Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 202003; 20200325; ayecorona; chinavirusmodeling; coronavirus; coronavirusmodel; covid19; epidemiologist; imperialcollege; neilferguson; oops; teamapocalypsesucks; unitedkingdom; wuhanflu
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To: deweyfrank

Exactly!!


181 posted on 03/26/2020 1:26:21 PM PDT by RushIsMyTeddyBear ("Progressives" (elitist Communists) "Love you to death".)
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To: mdmathis6; bitt; LucyT

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model?utm_source=63red.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=63red

PING !!!!!!!!!!!


182 posted on 03/26/2020 1:28:44 PM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: 3boysdad

LOL indeed!


183 posted on 03/26/2020 1:29:22 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: gogeo

From the dailywire report:

““One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

So Ferguson IS saying he is considering lockdown — but the reporter thinks that makes no sense.

I also do not think that half of UK is already infected. I think if it spread that much, they would have the same crowded hospitals as New York does now. And I don’t think half of New York City has it yet either.

I HOPE that they are all at 50%, because that would be great for ending the lockdowns. But I will be shockingly surprised if when we start random antibody testing we find 50% infected.


184 posted on 03/26/2020 1:30:59 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Magnum44

Ooooooh, it’s Greta Thunberg!


185 posted on 03/26/2020 1:31:06 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Interesting...


186 posted on 03/26/2020 1:31:57 PM PDT by nutmeg (Mega prayers for Rush Limbaugh)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Good point!

I guess we can also include the Prisoners in the Phantom zone as survivors with Ka-el

Kneel before Zod


187 posted on 03/26/2020 1:32:50 PM PDT by Gasshog (The Silver Lining to the Black Cloud of Liberalism agenda always comes back to bite them in the ass!)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

188 posted on 03/26/2020 1:34:13 PM PDT by machman
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Bfl


189 posted on 03/26/2020 1:35:14 PM PDT by goodnesswins (Trump is as good a dictator as he is a racist.....)
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To: Spirochete; null and void

[This is globalist power grab and they need to keep the momentum and hysteria going to undermine Trump.]

Careful! You’re going to wind up on the Nut-Job Conspiracy Ping List with some of us!


190 posted on 03/26/2020 1:35:31 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: WildHighlander57

Normally not until they (85% of the time) actually become ill. The “self-quarantine” is to provide a number of days to see if symptoms do develop. A good % remain asymptomatic and some days later test negative. But my point is that even if an asymptomatic person is out and about, provided no symptoms have started, 85% of the time, viral shedding is not yet occurring and transmission to others considered unlikely. The contagion control question is when and if someone who is asymptomatic starts to show symptoms - where are they, what are they doing, are they out, are they alone? With those questions in mind, and initial self-quarantine period is prudent, to see if symptoms do develop.


191 posted on 03/26/2020 1:35:53 PM PDT by Wuli
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To: con-surf-ative

Use a different browser.


192 posted on 03/26/2020 1:36:18 PM PDT by Hoosier-Daddy ("Washington, DC. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious")
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To: SaveFerris

He needs to threaten to report me to the Mods if I don’t add him.

It’s a rite of passage.


193 posted on 03/26/2020 1:36:48 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Coronavirus did not originate in a wet market in China.....it originated when some Russian hookers urinated on a bed in Trump’s hotel room.....Robert Mueller, Michael Avenetti, and Adam Schiff were all super spreaders of this virus......symptoms include painful swelling of the emoluments


194 posted on 03/26/2020 1:37:00 PM PDT by The Fop (God Bless Donald Trump, Frank Sinatra, Joan Rivers, and the Fightin' Rat Pack Wing of the GOP)
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To: polymuser

Soros involved? Yep...

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-01/icl-npw010505.php

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/423/soros-foundation-public-health-leadership-programme/


195 posted on 03/26/2020 1:37:29 PM PDT by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: Autonomous User

I wish FR had a ‘like’ button.


196 posted on 03/26/2020 1:37:52 PM PDT by Doris Doomsday (The End Is Near-er.)
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To: null and void
[He needs to threaten to report me to the Mods if I don’t add him.]

Let's see if anyone wants to join us! Now, who is up for lunch at Denny's? I'll drive us! This baby holds 8. Some of you will have to lay down in the cargo area.


197 posted on 03/26/2020 1:39:38 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
Modeling.

It's always better when done by hot girls than by so-called scientists

198 posted on 03/26/2020 1:41:35 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (When your business model depends on slave labor, you're always going to need more slaves)
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To: Whenifhow; null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; bgill; ...

p


199 posted on 03/26/2020 1:41:38 PM PDT by bitt (forget the electric chair..we're gonna need electric bleachers!)
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To: mewzilla

Wait! I didn’t have the salmon mousse!


200 posted on 03/26/2020 1:42:53 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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