Posted on 03/26/2020 10:29:46 AM PDT by Hojczyk
1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID; https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/ …
2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/ …
5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
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(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
Is this the same English university that came up with the famous global warming hockey stick to warn us average temp now would be 160F
“Imperial College London coronavirus model”
WOW! I want to say “This is the first I heard of this, BUT IT ISN’T.
I’ve heard about it over the past several days on “Tipping Point” with Liz Wheeler on OANN.
Liz Wheeler WAY out in front on this! Saying this DEEPLY FLAWED study/paper was relied on by our Coronavirus task force. Now she is totally validated as the author admits he is WRONG!
“Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.”
OOPS!
“Liz Wheeler WAY out in front on this!”
She’s always way out front. Scary smart lady.
So the US has 75,233 (Johns Hopkins University) confirmed cases of Coronavirus, and not all of those are severe enough to require hospitalization, or a ventilator. And, some of those have died, but many more have recovered already.
It is also concentrated in just a few states. IF it were spread out equally among the states, it would be less than 1,500 ventilators per state. Some states are already reporting a “flattening of the curve” on new cases and deaths.
So why do I keep hearing that states like New York and California each need 30,000 MORE ventilators? Mulltiple other states are needing thousands more. How many do they already have? How many are they currently using?
If New York and California each get 30,000 new ventilators, they could put nearly ALL of the total currently diagnosed cases to date on ventilators and not even use their current supply -— including all the subclinical and ambulatory cases being picked up and reported on the drive through testing right now.
What am I missing?
Does anyone have his revised US numbers? If I recall correctly, he had us at 2 million dead.
It's like the Indian rain dances. When there was a bad drought they'd all get together and take turns dancing continually, day and night. When the rain finally came, the wise ones nodded their heads and swore it was all down to the dancing. And who was to say it wasn't?
Here’s the paper being referred to, I think. When it was released, I read it with great alarm. Not because I agreed with its conclusions and recommendations, but because our glorious leaders would embrace them, and the consequences that would follow.
Regarding to his mea culpas afterward — haven’t seen those.
Yep - and when the virus curve flattens, even if the majority of the drastic measures didn’t really have a major role in it, “they” will tell us how they saved us...while trying to toss us into a serious depression that could cause some serious long-term damage.
Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”
Which was sort of obvious to people who were willing to think clearly about it.....and not panic and not wish for a crisis
Her reporting has been good.
Close to half of US cases have been from the NYC Metropolitan area.
In NYC, people commute to work in the subway/bus system. During rush hour, people are packed together tightly, standing touching each other, breathing in what the person next to you is breathing out.
In such an environment, anything contagious will spread VERY quickly, which may explain NYC's initially high numbers.
You mean Emily Litella - “Never mind” (although “It’s always something, ptooooey!” also applies ... Gilda Radner played both characters.
I say it's because everyone rushed out to buy TP.
I have at least as much basis for my statement as you have for yours.
It's been a stressful time. I'm glad we've been able to keep our sense of humor.
That, and their idiot Mayor didn’t take it seriously.
I think the liar media should give us reparations...SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!
That works for me.
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