Promises, promises.
This death rate projection is from March 9, 13 days ago.
Chart courtesy Travis McGee
Posted on 03/22/2020 7:15:30 AM PDT by John W
No, when Trump was going off about thr press and mentioned the “Deep State Department” when he was asking Pompeo to speak, Fauci smiled so broadly he had to cover his face to hide it.
In defense of Dr. Fauci, on May 5, 2009 (day 21 of the first case of 2009 outbreak), the CDC determined that flu to be no more deadly than the ordinary flu; on May 6 (day 22), the CDC recommended AGAINST school closures; and, on May 24 (day 40), tamiflu was recommended for people with flu symptoms regardless of whether it was the ordinary flu or the 2009 mutation. Nowadays, the 2009 flu is simply in the mix of flu when it comes to preparing the seasonal flu vaccine.
Today, we are on day 62 of the introduction of the 2019 flu to the U.S., and we know or suspect is that this flu is more contagious and more lethal. The President has ordered travel bans (starting with a travel ban on China on day 11; the CDC has issued guidance for social distancing; in keeping with, or a bit ahead of this guidance, private organizations and state governments have been canceling or restricting gatherings; and, while we have some hope for a treatment, no treatment is yet approved.
Even with regard to testing, in the 2009 outbreak, a new test kit was approved on day 14; and, this time, a new test kit was only approved on day 39 (and is just now becoming available in large numbers).
Our plan is to slow the spread of this disease until we have a treatment, at which time we can reassess the cost and benefit of social distances. Better would be to have both a treatment and a vaccine, but the vaccine probably won’t be available until the 2021 flu season.
So do we wait for a vaccine? Of course we won’t. There’d be nothing left.
I expect we will get back to work and end this shutdown in 3-4 weeks.
Baranck Hussein Obama was coronated in 2009. The US was being “fundamentally transformed.” Therefore the media kept all that under wraps.
Thanks for the heads up.
Promises, promises.
This death rate projection is from March 9, 13 days ago.
Chart courtesy Travis McGee
about waiting:
1. The teeter-tooter of balancing the cost and benefit of waiting (i.e., postponing life) is continually changing.
2. Slowing the invasion makes sense even if there were no prospect of ever developing a test, a treatment, or a vaccine, so we have time to gear up to deal with what we are facing.
3. With a test, as we now have, we can make reasoned decisions as to how to segregate those among us who are contagious from the rest of us. A test, even without a treatment, changes things.
4. With a treatment, the cost of taking a risk dramatically falls. This is why President Trump describes a proven anti-malaria drug as a potential game changer.
5. With a vaccine (and the development of herd immunity) we’d be back to normal.
So, no, we do not wait for a vaccine. Generally, people who seek to balance cost and benefit hardly ever say such things; but, often are criticize by those who are only sensitive to one or the other side of the equation.
A very insightful and excellent comment.
+1
antibiotics and flu:
Antibiotics fight bacteria. Flu is much more tiny than bacteria. Indeed, flu attacks bacteria in addition to attacking the cells of advanced animals and plants. But, bacterial infections often occur when a person is dealing with a serious flu. Bacterial infections and other complications diminish the ability of the body to deal with the flu. So, you might be prescribed a drug cocktail that includes antibiotics as well as anti-viral components.
CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States
During the pandemic, CDC provided estimates of the numbers of 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths on seven different occasions. Final estimates were published in 2011. These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. These final estimates are available at: Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010)External Web Site Icon, Shrestha SS, et al., Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 1;52 Suppl 1:S75-82.
CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States
During the pandemic, CDC provided estimates of the numbers of 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths on seven different occasions. Final estimates were published in 2011. These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. These final estimates are available at: Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010)External Web Site Icon, Shrestha SS, et al., Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 1;52 Suppl 1:S75-82.
But no national shutdown, no crashed beyond limits hospital system.
The point is not to experience the growth displayed in the chart.
Right now, the death rate is unreliable for a number of reasons:
1) it is too early in the transmission stage to have any idea of how many of those who are currently sick will eventually die;
2)there has been extreme limitation on the number of test kits available. Because of that we cannot accurately determine # of people of infected or the # of people who have died from covid without a diagnosis.
3) in many areas of the Country, control measures to mitigate the spread have already been put into place.
Fauci and Family money need looking onto!
Not once, though, did I ever feel like I wasn't going to be able to draw my next breath.
actually we were two weeks away last week- so we are only a week away now...
Diogenesis has the scoop on Tiny Tony
Fauci will get a grilling from Mark Levin. Tonight at 8 on Fox.
......
Thanks for the tip. Will watch.
I doubt Levin will ask any tough questions. Would be nice, but I doubt it.
Did you bother to even look a the chart?
We are already halfway up the red line. with 375 deaths.
All the Corona Cheerleaders are in the midst of a big letdown and most don’t even know it.
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