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To: rodguy911; wastoute; kabar; Alberta's Child; Travis McGee
Actual mortality stats - hat tip, wastoute.

Notes: Italy is 8 days ahead of US; US day 23-> is projected based on prior 22 day average.

		Italy	60.5				USA	330.4	
Day	Date	Total	% Chg	Daily	Differential	Date	Total	% Chg	Daily
									
1	2/21/2020	1		1	1.0	2/29/2020	1		1
2	2/22/2020	2	100.0%	1	1.0	3/1/2020	2	100.0%	1
3	2/23/2020	3	50.0%	1	0.5	3/2/2020	6	200.0%	4
4	2/24/2020	7	133.3%	4	0.8	3/3/2020	9	50.0%	3
5	2/25/2020	10	42.9%	3	0.8	3/4/2020	12	33.3%	3
6	2/26/2020	12	20.0%	2	0.9	3/5/2020	14	16.7%	2
7	2/27/2020	17	41.7%	5	0.9	3/6/2020	18	28.6%	4
8	2/28/2020	21	23.5%	4	1.1	3/7/2020	19	5.6%	1
9	2/29/2020	29	38.1%	8	1.3	3/8/2020	22	15.8%	3
10	3/1/2020	34	17.2%	5	1.3	3/9/2020	26	18.2%	4
11	3/2/2020	52	52.9%	18	1.7	3/10/2020	31	19.2%	5
12	3/3/2020	79	51.9%	27	2.1	3/11/2020	38	22.6%	7
13	3/4/2020	107	35.4%	28	2.5	3/12/2020	42	10.5%	4
14	3/5/2020	148	38.3%	41	3.0	3/13/2020	49	16.7%	7
15	3/6/2020	197	33.1%	49	3.5	3/14/2020	56	14.3%	7
16	3/7/2020	233	18.3%	36	3.8	3/15/2020	62	10.7%	6
17	3/8/2020	366	57.1%	133	4.9	3/16/2020	75	21.0%	13
18	3/9/2020	463	26.5%	97	4.8	3/17/2020	96	28.0%	21
19	3/10/2020	631	36.3%	168	5.2	3/18/2020	122	27.1%	26
20	3/11/2020	827	31.1%	196	4.8	3/19/2020	174	42.6%	52
21	3/12/2020	1,027	24.2%	200	4.5	3/20/2020	229	31.6%	55
22	3/13/2020	1,266	23.3%	239	4.7	3/21/2020	268	17.0%	39
23	3/14/2020	1,441	13.8%	175	4.6	3/22/2020	316	18.0%	48
24	3/15/2020	1,809	25.5%	368	4.8	3/23/2020	373	18.0%	57
25	3/16/2020	2,158	19.3%	349	4.9	3/24/2020	440	18.0%	67
26	3/17/2020	2,503	16.0%	345	4.8	3/25/2020	520	18.0%	79
27	3/18/2020	2,978	19.0%	475	4.9	3/26/2020	613	18.0%	94
28	3/19/2020	3,405	14.3%	427	4.7	3/27/2020	723	18.0%	110
29	3/20/2020	4,032	18.4%	627	4.7	3/28/2020	854	18.0%	130
30	3/21/2020	4,825	19.7%	793	4.8	3/29/2020	1,007	18.0%	154
									
	Population differential				5.5				
	Gross differential				25.8				
									
Growth rate									
22 days			38.36%					28.93%	
30 days			32.67%					25.92%	
									
Sources									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy	

189 posted on 03/22/2020 7:40:47 AM PDT by semantic
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To: semantic

Can you post that image I sent you?


190 posted on 03/22/2020 7:42:47 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: semantic

Not a valid comparison or projection. Italy ahead of us assumes we are the same as Italy. You fell for the left’s tactic. You are smarter than that, so please stop it. Can you think of a few differences between us and Italy? This is not a trick question.

Per the data you posted, here is one of my old posts.

“A study by some very very very very very very very smart people who have very big degrees I’m sure. And they have lots of real world experience I’m sure.
Uh huh, right. The problem with data is the PhDs who flaunt it make the ignorant assumption that the data is good. Usually, it is not. Data crunchers, scientists, analysts, usually have no street smarts, no understanding of how a paycheck is derived, where money actually comes from, how customer behaviors are studied, normal life stuff. No, instead, they take their data prima facie, and move on...multivariate analysis (as an e.g.), etc. That’s not the real world. Taking into account count the Chinese migrant workers in the northern Italy leather industry would have been a wee bit important. Single payor healthcare system in Italy. Deaths in Italy, avg age 81. I’ll take my 21 yr old budding chemical engineer son’s street smart understanding of the world over 99.9% of PhDs’ anytime. My 18 year old even challenges him in that category. My to also don’t have a hidden agenda.”


205 posted on 03/22/2020 7:52:50 AM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Not a Chinese cover-up. It was a Chinese attack.)
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To: semantic
Great stuff! Thanks very much. Problem is how much change will there be in the stats if we do nothing vs. what is planned for the next foreseeable future? That is the bigger question do we take the economy down for a percieved improvement in the statistics that may not even happen or let nature take its course?
221 posted on 03/22/2020 8:04:20 AM PDT by rodguy911
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