Posted on 03/16/2020 8:55:22 AM PDT by Kaslin
The decline in the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) since the top on February 19 exceeds 20%, a circumstance which by convention defines the end of the prior bull market. The advance from the previous bear market low (March 9, 2009) saw the index rise from 676.53 to its peak of 3,386.15, an increase of 400.52%.
This second bull market of the 21st century lasted nearly eleven years, far longer than the 6.09-yr. average during the ten bull phases of the post- World War II era, and longer than any prior bull market during that period except the great boom which followed the war.
The annualized index performance in this long march was 15.83%, less than the 17.19% post-war average. But having run longer than a typical advance, the cumulative result during the teen years of the new century was exceeded only once before since the postwar boom.
These bull market gains were a delight, but it’s likely that most of us didn’t take them to the bank. Every bull market is followed by a bear phase, during which sizable and often sudden losses occur. It remains to be determined how low the index will go in the current bear phase, and how long the decline will last. The average post-war bear mauled the markets for 1.1 years (in a range from three months to 2.5 years), exacting a cost of nearly 35% (in a range of 20-57%).
The long-term index performance, including both ups and downs, offers a better indication of what investors might expect to achieve. The entire postwar run, from the peak in May 1946 to the most recent top, saw the index rack up cumulative gains of 7.26% per annum. The recent decline (through March 12) trimmed that result to 6.8%.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Anyone here use Robinhood for stocks?
What kind of bailouts are the states going to demand that are banning tax-producing economic activity?
How are we going to handle millions of people out of work? Do they get like the rich banks did?
Fixed it. Short-term fluctuations in stock prices no longer have anything to do with the actual economy ... which is discussed in a few paragraphs near the end of this mistitled article.
States, on the other hand, aren't willing to forego whatever taxes they lost out on to come rolling back in. They will squeeze the blood out their turnip/citizens.
A “down” market is almost self-correcting in that it incentivizes investors to buy which drives it back up.
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Panics and sell offs are an investors best friend.
Be greedy when others are fearful. That’s really how successful investors make their money (i.e., by buying low). That way you minimize risk and maximize your upside.
Just my humble opinion.
That's basically what Warren Buffett is saying.
I used to think we had too many lawyers, now it seems we have an abundance of analysts dissecting each and every facet of life.
What is the real unemployment rate now?
Why were hospitals not equipped with masks and ventilators beforehand?
That’s basically what Warren Buffett is saying.
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Correct. I was expecting astute FReepers who are familiar with Buffett’s maxims to know that. :)
Why were hospitals not equipped with masks and ventilators beforehand?
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Because we have too many bureaucrats and politicians who love to talk instead of doing responsible things. Its how they roll, and why we are in extremis right now.
i believe that there’s a couple of trillion cash sitting on the side-lines right just waiting for this thing to settle out and that the market will come soaring back withing weeks as quick as it fell ... nothing has changed from the prior fundamentals except the unwarranted coronavirus panic created primarily by the fake stream enemedia ... i missed the previous bull market, and i for one am licking my chops!
You mean give some of the people some of their money back and some of their money to others?
No.
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