Posted on 03/09/2020 6:40:59 AM PDT by John W
Question for all you smart people: why is it that low oil prices are considered bad economic news?
I have a nickel for every time they were finally going to get Orange Man. I’m getting rich and Orange Man is still standing.
They’re always having 24 hour reporting on blizzards that never show up, too. You’d think they would learn something from the last sensationalized natural phenomenon, but nooooo!
The Saudis made a big mistake on Saturday by cutting oil prices massively all at once. That dumb move trashed the energy stocks today and rattled the markets badly. They should have spread the price reduction out into 10 minor price cuts, two days apart, and slowly brought oil prices down as the markets adjusted to lower prices.
People are blaming the media too much for causing panic. There have been all kinds of unprecedented events that are stunning the financial markets, such as the lockdown and quarantine of a Chinese city with millions of residents, and the quarantine of an entire Italian state. The CDC made a very unusual statement saying the epidemic could get really bad in America and was likely to disrupt everyday life. That was an oddly pessimistic statement from the CDC, and the financial markets don’t like highly unusual negative statements from government.
The S&P 500 Index is close to bear market territory now. A bear market would start if the index breaks below 2700, and right now it’s around 2760. We need some positive news about the viral epidemic and no more dumb, stunning moves by the Saudis or anyone else. I don’t think cutting interest rates more would do any good. That would just make people wonder if the Fed knows that we’re starting to go into recession. We need progress in containing the coronavirus epidemic and no more doom and gloom about the epidemic from governments around the world, especially our own government.
Honestly, don’t bother trying to educate folks who are determined to not look at the facts.
Sadly, they probably won’t wake up unless a beloved relative is coughing out their last breath on a gurney in an overwhelmed hospital. I hope it doesn’t happen, but the numbers do not lie. Epidemiology is a solid science, and the data is already matching earlier projections.
Those of us who are smart about this are taking steps to be fully prepared. If there’s a miracle and we don’t need the preparations, well, shrug. I’d rather be embarrassed from being overprepared than sick or burying family.
I would say that if governments around the world do not stop the expansion of this viral epidemic in the next three weeks, then the global economy and the US economy are likely to go into recession. We need government officials to stop all the strange unprecedented negative statements, such as the incredible statements out of the UK that 50% or more of people in the UK are likely to be infected with the coronavirus this year, and the ridiculous declaration of a “State of Emergency” in California and New York, over an epidemic that isn’t anywhere near as serious as a typical winter flu season.
Government officials around the world are losing their minds over this coronavirus epidemic and causing a financial panic. They need stop all the strange negative statements and overreactions to this viral epidemic and make some real progress in containing it. If they don’t get this epidemic contained soon, then we’re likely to have a recession and President Trump will have to campaign for reelection as we emerge from a recession in the second half of this year. That’s not a good idea, of course, and that would open the door to Biden winning the election when he shouldn’t have any chance of defeating President Trump.
I’m having fun reading all the doom and gloom and how you need to liquidate very asset you own and buy GOLD!
THIS IS IT!
March 5, 2020
by Egon von Greyerz
“This is it! The party is over. The world is now facing the gravest economic and social downturn in Modern Times (18th century). We are now entering a period of global crisis that will change the world for a very long time to come. This should come as no surprise to the people who have studied history and also read my articles for the last few years. Many others have also warned about the same thing. But since MSM never talks about the excesses in the world or the risks, 99.9% of people are totally unprepared for what is coming next!”
*SNIP*
The money quote:
“So quite a simple decision. Get out of all stocks as well as other bubble assets and buy physical gold as the best form of wealth preservation and insurance against the worst economic downturn in Modern Times (since the 18th century).”
https://goldswitzerland.com/this-is-it/
Oy! These people! ;)
MERS was the one under Baraq Hussein Obola.
In 2014, CDC "modelers" (at least 19 w/MD's & PhD's after their names) projected that between 550,000 and 1.4 million people would contract the Ebola virus in just two African countries, Liberia and Sierra Leone.[1]
Turns out, 28,616 infection cases were reported in not just Liberia and Sierra Leone but also Guinea.[2]
They were off by 95 - 98%.
Those predicting 15,000,000 to 68,000,000 deaths from Covid-19 this year will turn out to be spectacularly wrong.
In fact, I would argue that when the year is done, and there weren't even 100,000 deaths worldwide, they should be held criminally liable for inciting mass panic and hysteria, being between 99.33% - 99.85% wrong.
Their projections are totally reckless and irresponsible.
Their "projections" will turn out to be just as spectacularly wrong as the countless climate catastrophes that were projected over the many years. Yet, those climate change hoax projections didn't cause anywhere near the mass hysteria over Covid-19 we see today.
They’re just throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks, in the interest of attacking President Trump. What’s to lose? If nothing happens, they pay no price, at least not for their unthinking lobotomized drones.
It’d be awesome if the projections are wrong.
Absolutely nothing would make me happier!
I just heard a news report that our President spent an hour with a man who had recently spent time with someone who now appears infected with the virus.
My market guru predicts a drop in the DOW to around 15,000.
So you think a 3% death rate is NO PROBLEM. I just heard a report that we had 30 to 40 million flu cases last year, and 30 to 40 thousand flu deaths. If we have the same number of Covid-29 cases in one year, even if only 10% were hospitalized at 3% that would be 300 to 400 thousand deaths. So yes it is a problem.
Hope it works out. With all the TV pundit panic be sure to ask around at bus stops for advice on good spots to look for returnable cans and bottles---just in case. (kidding)
Good Advice. If you have a stomach for volatility it is a good time to pick up bargains as long as you don’t need the money. Suburban Propane for a yield (at one point) over 17%? I’ll take another 1000 shares. They won’t be cutting their dividend any time soon. The same goes for AT&T, Iron Mountain, etc.
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