[palmer]

if one does honest calculations based on completed cases (and assuming the raw data is accurate!) rather than based on how many people have had it long enough for their individual outcomes to be known, is 6.9%

Nice try. Remember when that recovery to mortality ratio was 1:1? Yes I do, then 3:!1 and most recently 10:1. Now it is 14:1 At some point it will asymptote at 33:1 to 50:1 globally and probably 100:1 here.

[null and void]

EXACTLY!!!! as we get more data the rate gets closer to the asymptotic floor, and THAT'S the number the history books will report!

Here's the daily numbers since 1/25:

41.9
52.9
59.7
62.7
54.5
56.1
54.8
47.7
34.7
36.8
39.8
32.5
29.1
24.3
23.2
21.2
21.6
20.0
18.7
18.4
16.7
15.6
14.8
13.7
12.8
11.9
11.5
10.9
10.2
9.6
9.5
8.9
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.9
6.9

I'm guessing the history books will report 4.5%

[null and void]

Although I wouldn’t mind your 50:1 2% final rate...