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Fair enough, since conjecture is the name of the game.

Is it possible that the higher CFR in Wuhan is due to terrible air pollution, overcrowding, higher rates of cigarette smokers?

Nobody knows for certain what will happen here.

Some of the news coming out of Iran seems just as bad. I think what caused the high CFR in China could be some of the factors you indicated - but I also believe it was other things, such as an overwhelmed medical system. When you have an R0 that is b/w R4-R6 and a CIR (ICU care) of b/w 14-20% - I think you have the potential to overwhelm a system very rapidly. You add that with the factors you gave - and you get this.

I believe this really isn't about the mortality rate - it's more of a supply chain disruption and a lifestyle change (resulting just from fear). You won't calm herd mentality.

One of the best pieces of advice I got early on in my stock trading career was to study trading psychology and herd mentality. Fear is an irrational beast. It drives the markets - and it drives people to panic. People can post on this forum all day long that all is well - but that won't keep your shelves stocked and food on your table if the herd begins to believe that all is not well...even if it really is.

Actually, smoking rates in China are not all that much higher than here. Pollution is probably a much more significant factor as to whether this thing kills you or not. There are a number of countries in the swath of heavy pollution that runs from China to Morocco with high smoking rates, higher than China, even. So if those countries have high mortality rates that might be informative.

Population density pollution and dirty conditions didn’t seem to matter in India, but, again, it’s still early and we don’t have comprehensive data from anywhere, yet. Watch South Korea, Italy and Japan. Those countries will tell us a lot. And none of them are as polluted as China, India and Iran.

Still a lot of unknowns.