Posted on 02/28/2020 9:20:28 PM PST by NoLibZone
Does not mean that the flu will not kill you. Just the odds.
Good analogy. This is why I wear my seatbelt.
When it comes to flu pandemics, I pay attention and prep.
This coronavirus is more contagious and spreads faster with a higher mortality rate. That’s the problem.
It is definitely something we need to control and minimize the spread in the U.S. before it burns itself out by summer.
At some point, something will go wrong. Just the way life is. If you have done basic preparations in advance you will have a much easier time getting through it.
“This virus kills between 2 to 3 percent of those who get it. Those are facts.”
Only if you believe that any of the numbers coming out of china are “facts”. In the U.S., for example, zero people who’ve contracted the virus have died ... is that not a fact?
i didn’t realize that FR allowed non-alarmist articles about coronavirus to be posted here ...
“This coronavirus is more contagious and spreads faster with a higher mortality rate”
actually, not a single one of your assertions has been substantiated by reliable data ...
worldwide, it’s estimated that there are 3-5 million annual SEVERE influenza cases, which provides substantial data regarding contagion, mortality, etc.
so far, there’s been just a few thousand coronavirus cases and a few hundred deaths, almost all of them in communist china, which has issued zero reliable data ...
as for the rest of the world, we’re talking about a few hundred cases and a few dozen deaths, so not enough is known at this point to make sweeping statements of fact about anything related to that virus ...
“He compared it to the cold coronavirus. “
That’s actually a better comparison than to the flu in the sense of what kind of critter it is, as I understand it, however, it’s a super cold on steroids.
Comparing the Wuhan virus to the flu instead of the cold virus is like comparing NFL football to minor league baseball instead of Pee Wee football.
It’s not the flu. That moots the rest of your argument, some of which is factually incorrect as stated.
The flu is endemic. The Wuhan virus is not and we need to keep it that way.
Actually I’ve never known anyone in my entire life that has died from the flu. People throw around these stats trying to prove God knows what.
My Doctor said the same thing, as long as you are being treated here.
Actually, smoking rates in China are not all that much higher than here. Pollution is probably a much more significant factor as to whether this thing kills you or not. There are a number of countries in the swath of heavy pollution that runs from China to Morocco with high smoking rates, higher than China, even. So if those countries have high mortality rates that might be informative.
Population density pollution and dirty conditions didn’t seem to matter in India, but, again, it’s still early and we don’t have comprehensive data from anywhere, yet. Watch South Korea, Italy and Japan. Those countries will tell us a lot. And none of them are as polluted as China, India and Iran.
Still a lot of unknowns.
Flu is endemic. Wuhan virus is not.
“Only if you believe that any of the numbers coming out of china are “facts”. In the U.S., for example, zero people who’ve contracted the virus have died ... is that not a fact?”
There are numbers coming out of other countries as well, and the CFR ranges wildly due to the smaller data set. However, excluding Hubei Province where Wuhan is (where the medical system has clearly been overwhelmed), the mortality rate for resolved cases is still pretty high. 1.8%. And given what we do know about China and Iran, at least, the overall CFR is certainly higher if the problem is ignored. Because the medical system gets overwhelmed...
It is not a certainty that no US deaths have occurred due to the lack of testing. It may be a fact, but we cannot actually declare it so at this point.
In any case, an excessive response is a lot less dangerous than an insufficient one, so people calling this a hoax and such risk doing more political harm than good. Trump is handling this properly, Presidentially. The media and Democrat clowns will have their lies exposed. There is no more point in panicking about media lies and Deep State conspiracies than there is in panicking about global pandemics or what ever.
“More people are likely to and have already gotten the flu in the US than the Coronavirus.”
Actually, if the CV gets loose, many more people will get it. Flu has a well documented R0 of 1.3, CV estimated to be around 6.
However, it’s not the flu.
Walk-back by CDC director, of previous statement by another official:
“[RR] Watch: CDC director downplays claim that coronavirus spread is inevitable
https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/cdc-director-downplays-claim-that-coronavirus-spread-is-inevitable/
WASHINGTON — The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday downplayed a fellow CDC official’s warning that spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the U.S. is inevitable, saying she misspoke.
CDC Director Robert Redfield told Capitol Hill lawmakers Thursday that Dr. Nancy Messonnier’s statement Tuesday belied the fact that risk remains low.
“I think what Dr. Messonnier was trying to say — I think it maybe could have been done much more articulately from what the American public heard — was she was trying to say it’s also a good time for us to prepare if we have to go to more mitigation,” Redfield told a House subcommittee.
He added: “We’re still committed to get aggressive containment, and I want the American public to know at this point that the risk is low.”
Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, had warned: “We expect we will see community spread in this country. It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness. … Disruption to everyday life might be severe.”
President Donald Trump contradicted Messonnier in a press conference from the White Housing briefing room Wednesday, telling reporters: “I don’t think it’s inevitable. It probably will. It possibly will. It could be at a very small level or it could be at a larger level.”
The president reportedly fumed about Messonnier’s warning, blaming it for the economic repercussions that ultimately saw the stock market lose over 3,000 points this week.”
“ This virus kills between 2 to 3 percent of those who get it. The flu kills less than 1%.”
So using the current numbers you are saying with certainty that the virus will be killing at least 50,000 and up to 200,000 Americans this year. I’ll take that bet. Say $10k?
No, they are statistics.
And NO CASES in children 15 and under.
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