Many years ago (and some recently), I would do economic research on China.
Can you trust Government statistics. NO. For a few reasons:
1) Everything in china is political, so the degree of lies is directly proportional to how political something is. If something is not highly political (say, amount of sugar produced in a Province, if the info exists, it is probably pretty accurate)
2) The central statisticians, even with the best intentions, are also lied to by those below them. Its the nature of any bureaucrat, but particularly communist ones.
3) Decades ago, they didn’t have the money, structures or systems to keep good records. This of course has improved a lot recently. And when they want to, they keep extremely detailed information
I’m sure Xi Jinping has really great info on a subject he wants info on. Coronavirus is a political bomb. What they will release to their own citizens, much less to foreigners, is a VERY different matter.
Given that what communists attempted to do was the economic equivalent of cold fusion, economists predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union pretty much since the Bolshevik Revolution. And ~74 years after its ascension to power, the CPSU’s hold on power went away in 1991. China’s Communist Party came to power in 1949. 2020 marks its 71st year in power. Given the Chinese predilection for numerology, you can bet that both party rivals and influential men not currently in government are individually getting their acts together in preparation for the big game - a competition for the throne similar to what brought the party to power in 1949.
The potential for a new cycle of revolts followed by regime collapse is why Xi Jinping worries about this disease, the way he worries about every aspect of Chinese society that might threaten his rule. The fact that it is now acknowledged as a very big deal means that potential Chinese rivals are now looking at challenging his rule. Big crises have traditionally been the equivalent of a dinner bell or the report of a starter’s gun for ambitious Chinese power contenders because they signal regime vulnerability. China is entering a period of potential regime collapse, and Xi knows it.