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I am not an alarmist at all. But I have been watching this since the very start. Instead of “listening” to what governments are saying, I am watching what they are doing.

I made a good living in the Emergency Management world, and doing Operational Risk Management.

What I am seeing on a grand scale is “Look at my left hand...” But what I am seeing with their “right hand” does not seem “proportionate.”

So either the CCP is really, really, really over-reacting, or this thing is worse than what they are saying.

I have to believe that the US Intelligence people are on the ground and certainly in the air. I would love to know what they know.

My greatest concern is that our Government KNOWs what this is, and what is really going on. AND, they will lie directly to our faces until they have a solution. Really, it is the ONLY alternative that makes any strategic sense.

Here is my logic on this:

1. Lots of people are sick in China.
2. It is a fair guess to assume that there are more people sick in China than they are letting on because they are closing down so much of their economy. They would close it down to either protect their people, or to ensure there is not wide spread rebellion.
3. I think ALL information coming out of china is suspect. they are trying to suppress “something.”
4. There IS a defined disruption in the supply chain coming out of China. Cargo shipments are down 1.4 million twenty foot containers over last month. The Kia plant in Korea was shut down due to lack of parts from China. SOMETHING is stopping production and transportation in China.
5. The Koreans are responding disproportionately to this thing if it were “just the flu.”
6. The State Department is responding disproportionately to this, if it were no worse than “the flu.”
7. The Italians are responding disproportionately to this if “it is just the flu.”

The list can go on. I present those statements in a way that I was trained to assess risk: dispassionately, and constantly asking “why” and who does it affect. (Not who benefits because I don’t care about placing blame.)

I put together the pieces last week when the dRam provider for Samsung shut down their factory in Korea. Upon seeing that I shorted the market. I was rewarded for three days due to that (not big bucks...but about an 11-15% return in a day.)

I always assume there are people smarter than me looking at these pieces—having access to information you and I would never “admit” to having.

I also rely on my Emergency Management experience in logistics and hospital network operations for a cluster of hospitals. The sparse information coming out of there is not optimistic. Weeks ago when this first started, I mentioned on a thread that I could “see” people in my old offices taking the binders off the shelves and dusting them off. What I hear is that they are off the shelve, being read, and adjusted for changes. That has piqued my interest.

So, I am not running around with my hair on fire. I am not panicked. I live in an area that routinely gets knocked off the grid at least once a winter for several days. Being cut off doesn’t frighten me, and I am not afraid of getting sick and dying. The numbers do not reflect that at all. Even the “bad” numbers in Italy and Iran don’t reflect that.

There is a big difference between worry and concern.

Now, thinking “risk management” and Emergency Response to this, here are my thoughts on what the President will do:

1. He will say this is no worse than the flu.
2. He will say to wash our hands.
3. He will say we don’t need to hoard gloves and masks (we don’t.)
4. He will say that have a great EM system in this country and that the “best people...really excellent people” are working on this.
5. He will mention Xi has it under control—he will reference the slow growth of cases (without referencing the change in case-count-methodology.)
6. He will say we are working on vaccines right now.

Those things are all true.

What he should say is that we have 8,000 people in self quarntine in CA. But no human to human contact. That means its contained (scary, but good.)

He should say that this is coming. But stress the statistics, which are good.

He should put in travel restrictions for any place that has an outbreak (Korea, Italy, etc.)

He should ensure everyone that cargo will ship and will be tested and it will be safe.

He should demonstrate what we know about China through intelligence reports. Would it be a shock that we have satellites over China? I don’t think so. Show us what is going on.

He should demonstrate how he, Xi, Kim, Abe, and the President of Korea are in constant contact and working together.

I doubt he will say or do any of those things. I doubt he will admit its already here.

I doubt he will address the horrible testing situation. And the reason is, if you don’t test...you cannot confirm. If there is no treatment, why bother. Is it better for the US to think there are (39 or 54...I dont recall) cases in the US, and not test? The people watching this and reporting it are too focused on Bernie, Chuck, and Nancy.

Should he have Chuck and Nancy with him on the stage? Not yet. Not until it is publicly here and spreading.

Finally, it is here. People contact me from the daily thread live—every day. People who’s names you would recognize. People in my own family still “in the business” contact me from up and down the East Coast.

It is here. There are people self quarantining. In small groups. Ones and twos. It is not public and its not going public for Hippa reasons. It doesn’t have to if the cases are mild and these folks do what they are told.

But its here. And people should be concerned. Not panicked.

And I honestly believe in my heart that Trump is being told the absolute best thing that he can do is stand up in front of the people, tell the things he can...and lie his ass off about the rest. It will give them time to prepare and practice.

I cannot imagine what the large urban areas would look like in a panic. He has to avoid that at all costs.

I know its a long answer, and it should be read in a calm tone as if you are in a briefing. The closest I have come to inciting panic is telling people to buy one extra meal for their family every week and store it away. If this doesn’t happen, they can skip shopping in a few weeks.

That is all anyone needs to do.