“ Nice crystal ball you have there.
When will this rising tide start happening?”
Since we’re talking crystal balls...My guess is a lower open followed by buying and a higher close. It will take a while to exceed previous highs, but most likely not too many months.
“Although new details about the virus’s nature and its growth are still emerging, we know that it has a 2–14 day incubation period and the average #/transmissions by each person who has it is roughly 2.6. As of Feb 14, over 64,000 have been suspected/confirmed to be infected, with almost 1400 deaths.
Despite the seemingly endless media coverage of the virus, many questions remain unanswered. Are there truly only 60k+ confirmed cases, or is this figure deflated? Is the number of fatalities under-reported as well? How fast is the virus spreading every day? How dangerous is it? In order for us to accurately gauge the danger it poses, it’s necessary to calculate the mortality rate. Even if the virus is spreading quickly, it is not a large threat if people don’t die after contracting it.
Currently, the mortality rate calculations are incorrect and misleading. As of now, it is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of infected. The figure below shows the “misleading” mortality rate for Hubei Province since Jan 22. Based on these calculations, the mortality rate is determined to be around 2.5% currently. However, it is incorrect because it does not take one hugely important factor into account: the lag effect.”
There seem to be some likely significant unknown unknowns lurking around out there.
Futures are already up 200+ and gold is down almost $20.
The crisis is over. Yahoo.
The market has lost more than 10% of its value prior to any occurrence of an outbreak in the US. When that outbreak happens, expect another 1000-2000 pt drop.