Posted on 02/19/2020 11:07:48 PM PST by bitt
The way China counts confirmed cases of the virus changed for the second time in a week, muddling the data, confusing scientists and resulting in a drop in new infections.
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China again alters the methodology for counting coronavirus cases, as death toll rises to 2,118.
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China again alters the methodology for counting coronavirus cases, as death toll rises to 2,118.
For the second time in a week, China on Thursday changed its criteria for confirming coronavirus cases, throwing into confusion the methodology that the country at the heart of the outbreak uses to track transmissions and resulting in a dramatic decrease in new infections.
The new criteria exclude patients from Hubei Province, the hardest-hit area of the outbreak, who are diagnosed using clinical methods, including CT scans and an assessment of symptoms. Instead, patients there would be counted as having contracted the virus only when confirmed by a specialized nucleic acid test. Using the new criteria, officials in the province on Thursday recorded 349 new cases in the previous 24 hours, bringing the total national figures to 74,576. New deaths rose by 114 on Wednesday, bringing the death toll to 2,118.
In its sixth iteration of a diagnosis regime, the government said it would differentiate between “suspected” and “confirmed” cases from now on. Cases would only be considered confirmed after genetic testing.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Number of cases, density of cases, speed of spread. If the events in Wuhan were simply a biological property of the virus we should be seeing Wuhans all over Asia by now, and we’re not.
If it has a loooonnng incubation period we might well be seeing a world Wuhan. The ticking time bombs could be everywhere.
If it wasn't a point accidental release, but a massively parallel release in Wuhan, we'd see a concentrated Wuhan cluster.
Didn't Wuhan have a big vaccination drive last December?
Asking for a friend...
So you have the state of things on Friday night. In the centre, sticking into the skin of our old planet Earth like a poisoned dart, was this cylinder. But the poison was scarcely working yet. Around it was a patch of silent common, smouldering in places, and with a few dark, dimly seen objects lying in contorted attitudes here and there. Here and there was a burning bush or tree. Beyond was a fringe of excitement, and farther than that fringe the inflammation had not crept as yet. In the rest of the world the stream of life still flowed as it had flowed for immemorial years. The fever of war that would presently clog vein and artery, deaden nerve and destroy brain, had still to develop.
I liked the idea of a point source for Wuhan for a while, but to fit the facts now there almost has to be ongoing contamination, a biological Chernobyl, if you will.
I have not yet integrated the Diamond Princess into my worldview, however. Only seven provinces in China have more cases than the ship.
“No one came out to explain things clearly to the people during the past week. There was only cold repression and force,” wrote a social media user with the handle Dong Fang Qiu Huo, adding that older people had worked hard to buy decent houses in Yangluo, “but everything is smashed in the cloud of waste-to-energy plants.”....Many complained that they could accept the plant if it was moved farther from apartments, homes, schools and colleges.
“Go, Yangluo people,” one person posted. “If we don’t stand up, we’ll be buried.”
https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-china-protests-wuhan-environment-20190704-story.html
Effectively a point source, but a source spread in time rather than in space? Interesting.
“Forget the numbers. Focus on Wuhan, and why it is so different from every other province in China, every other place on earth in fact - that’s the interesting thing about this situation.”
I’m starting to suspect that Wuhan is simply a couple of months ahead of the rest of China, and at least 3 months ahead of the world. We’ll see...
Wrong, unless subclinical means “ nothing” to you.
.
subclinical what? it is a nonspecific finding not specific to infection let alone any particular infection. How many chest CT reports and scans do you look at?
The numbers don’t add up. No way that many are still languishing with the virus in comparison to the deaths and recovered. Thousands must have died of ingrown toenails.
sounds like the ccp is flailing away at altering the method of counting cases such as to produce, at some point, zero new cases so as to get back to normal regardless of how many incinerators they have to use to hide the truth
Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology
GG is certainly nonspecific but it doesn’t mean “nothing”. Maybe you misspoke or were not clear enough.
There might not be an obvious clinical correlate at that moment (hence the causative entity being subclinical) but many times there is a clinical correlate, all depending on your patient population and their pretest probabilities. In the appropriate clinical context, even a small isolated focus raises the post test probability. If you are a pulmonologist a small focus of GG could be meaningful. If you are a GP and the report refers to a snall focus of GG as an incidental finding, its significance is uncertain. Maybe it’s small subclinical focus of pneumonitis.
https://radiopaedia.org/articles/ground-glass-opacification-3?lang=us
the list of things that can cause ground glass opacity is long and can be infectious, inflammatory, autoimmune etc. in the absence of clinical correlation it is usually clinically insignificant - ie means nothing to the diagnosis and care of the patient Even to pulmonologists. That is 34 years of clinical experience so if you want to argue further please provide your credentials.
My point is many on these threads think ground glass on a CT is diagnostic of a covid 19. It is not. It is in fact not diagnostic of anything.
That was in 2012, not related to the current outbreak, but very interesting nonetheless...
This doesn't encourage control of the coronavirus
especially with the large numbers of 70% of false negative results.
A better and more precise method must be found.
People's Republic of China
Body Count: 73,237,000
What's another 11,000,000?
True !
"Saving face" is deeply rooted in almost all Oriental societies,
much less in an authoritarian nation.
All people are expendable for the sake of the reputation of the nation, in Communism.
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