JAMA releasing several papers tomorrow.
Anthony Fauci discusses the latest developments in the global 2019-nCoV outbreak with JAMA Editor Howard Bauchner. Originally broadcast on Thursday, February 6 at 09:30 CST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg5PjvbVioA
Primary questions for CDC investigation - asymptomatics - method of transfer - what kind of impact on testing? when do AS get carriage of virus in the nasal passages, is that transmissible, is it replication competent, or just PCR identifiable? is transmission only respiratory borne? is stool virus live virus or just PCR? all answers we don’t know
no direct proven effective antivirals, those used are used on compassionate basis
early cases - symptoms to hospitalization 5 days. Days to ICU 7 days from hospitalization, onset to intubation/ARDS 8 days. Virus seems to adapt.
travel related cases outside of china that transmit to other people seem to have less serious disease but data too small to call a difference
children and infants all have done well - post-natal infection could be within one day? (30hr old baby tested positive)
effect on blood supply? transfusions? no determinations yet
all questions are cascading questions that haven’t been answered
next 2-4 wks? pattern continues to accelerate, will it turn the corner in a month-encouraging, or continuing to spread? Normal coronavirus should recede in spring but would rather it turn around on it’s own kinetics. next 2-4wks ‘absolutely critical’ to answer.
now that Kobe, Iowa, State of the Union, Impeachment are falling out of the news cycle maybe more will be paying attention
here is a decent piece this morning from CBS
https://twitter.com/RamyInocencio/status/1225781947017785345
Thank you for this
A summer’s reprieve of course could put us in a much better position to deal with it.