For Wuhan, I think you need to consider, a) 5M left Wuhan between the announcement of lockdown and lockdown (1 wk to go home); b) The night before the lockdown, count another half a mill. These are the wealthy/middleclass getting out of Dodge; c) workers returning to Guanggang from Wuhan was 3/4MM. Basically the middle/wealthy classes fled to airports or other provinces and the rest went home for the holidays. We don’t know how many of 1MM students got out but they’re not included in the pop probably and none are sick so leave them out. Which brings the number to around 6.3MM actual left in the city. Then calculate any increase in the rate of cremations from Wuhan on a ‘normal day’, it might be a clearer pix?
https://nypost.com/2020/01/27/five-million-residents-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-lockdown-mayor-reports/
"Mayor Zhou Xianwang said about 9 million people remained in the city after the lockdown was imposed Thursday" [Jan 23]
"Ma Xiaowei, who heads the National Health Commission, told a press conference that battling the outbreak was complicated, particularly after it was discovered that the coronavirus could be transmitted even during its incubation period of one to 14 days."
So there are still around 9 million left in Wuhan. The five million that left was likely from the total metropolitan area around Wuhan. Plus the average is not constant, there are times of year when people are more likely to pass away. The bodies are being cremated, not buried, so other forms of burial are not being used, making the crematoriums really busy.
For now, I think the numbers coming out of China are accurate. The long term problem is while the Coronavirus is less lethal than SARs, it is much more infectious. This makes containing it much harder, means it will be around longer before it is contained, and a lot more people are going to die before this is over.