Coronavirus Live Update Feb 1st , 2020 (Agenda Free TV)

Agenda free TV ^

[janetjanet998]

NO Newsroom @BNODesk · 2m BREAKING: Epicenter of coronavirus outbreak reports 1,921 new cases and 45 new deaths, raising death toll to 304

[donozark]

Big jump in last 24 hours.

[SE Mom]

Just catching up. Pretty big increase.

I’m most interested in the cases that remain contagious AFTER recovering.

[dp0622]

I’m interested in seeing how many people die in Western countries.

I think it will be far less.

Pneumonia is what kills the vast majority in China.

And if anyone here thinks China has enough antibiotics in every town and village, I’ve got a country with a billion people to sell you.

[SE Mom]

BREAKING —> New York City suspects a patient at Bellevue Hospital has the coronavirus. The CDC is testing the man, who is under 40 years old.

[abigkahuna]

Numbers indicate still 2.2 percent death rate... But I think that China has many deaths that are not being officially attributed to the coronavirus...mainly due to lack of testing for every suspected case of the sniffles, coughs and fevers. Whether it is official policy, or just bungling at the lower levels, or being overwhelmed

[Black Agnes]

We get OUR antibiotics from China.

[janetjanet998]

Just catching up. Pretty big increase.

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big increase in Critical and serious out of Hubei

1-31 7153 total 956 serious 338 critical . 1294
2-1 9074 total 1118 serious 444 critical . 1562

26.8 percent daily increase in overall cases but 31.3% jump in critical

[SE Mom]

They’re throwing all they’ve got at it to see what works. It doesn’t seem they’ve found the magic bullet yet.

It’s not the lethality neccesarily, it’s the ability of any given community to care for seriously ill patients. ICU’s have limited numbers of beds.

[janetjanet998]

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
9m
While focus remains on Wuhan, the number of cases in nearby Huanggang has risen to 1,002 (up by 276 from yesterday). Huanggang announced earlier today that people will be banned from leaving their home, except for 1 person per family to get basic needs every other day

[donozark]

Travis and Lackland AFB and Ft Carson and Miramar Air Station announced as housing for guaranteed case. Up to 1K total.

[donozark]

Should read ‘quarantined cases.’

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[janetjanet998]

Hubei change from yesterday
_______
49 released from Hospitals
45 deaths

+1872 net change added to hospitals

[Momaw Nadon]

I’m shipping up to Boston, whoa!!!

[PA Engineer]

Difficult, however it may be better to determine the death rate today from the number of known infections at onset of illness. Patients dying today may have contracted the virus one to two weeks prior. This will alter the percent of deaths significantly. Add in the unknown deaths and ....

[ProtectOurFreedom]

And probably very few have negative pressure treatment rooms for seriously ill and communicable patients.

[steve86]

I endured the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine a week ago (still hurts a little), but sadly that would not help against the viral pneumonia of 2019nCoV. Neither would antibiotics, since the severely-afflicted patients do not live long enough to contract a secondary bacterial infection.

[janetjanet998]

Difficult, however it may be better to determine the death rate today from the number of known infections at onset of illness. Patients dying today may have contracted the virus one to two weeks prior. This will alter the percent of deaths significantly. Add in the unknown deaths and ....

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Correct...here is an example I gave in the other thread..there is a lag time..here I came up with an example formula and with luck i am going to be close ..(47ish deaths today after the other areas report)

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Once we get a bigger pool of data..I am sure people with PHD in stats will soon be able to predict the number of deaths the next day by the number of serious conditions a few days (X) before

for example in my numbers

new deaths/serious 2 days before

1-26 10.1%
1-27 8 %
1-28 5.6%
1-29 3.9%
1-30 3.5%
1-31 3.4%

as you can this number is falling but leveling out as we get a larger data set but if that number is 3.3% for 2-1 then there will be 45 new deaths today 1370 serious on the 29th times .033

I just made the above example up but I am sure someone that knows more then me are also looking at these stats and trying to model them

[caww]

Chinese are alredy well disposed with resperatory issues because of their terrible smog full of various factory smoke.

Ride to work every day in this stuff, guranteed to affect reperatory.