Posted on 01/31/2020 8:50:37 PM PST by catnipman
what is your opinion
altered?
by chance?
Created?
Mutation?
“But they’re wrong; it’s still not engineered.”
Anyone who makes a statement like that is not trying to lay out the facts. They are trying to spread an opinion as fact.
Since no one (that will admit it) knows how this virus came to be, how would we ‘know’ it wasn’t engineered by a couple of very simple procedures that could appear as ‘natural mutation’ ?
Probably not by chance.
IMHO it’s someone’s research project that accidentally got loose.
Outside chance it was an intermediate in some biowarfare program.
Lots of legitimate research in/around that bl4 facility in wuhan. We do the same sort of stuff here. Not everything done in a bl4 facility is biowarfare.
Perhaps the HIV snippets are like having an alternative method of picking the lock—double the odds to gain entry.
Let me speculate/guess?Note that I assume only a 25% fatality rate of the ICU cohort, HALF the current reported actual rate. I'm assuming treatment will improve over the long term. It's gone from 53% to 52% to 50.7% in the three days I have actual data. I like that trend.For every 100 exposed, 60 made ill, for every 60 sick, 30 recover with rest, fluids, OTC medicine, 30 need hospital treatment, 20 of those will need ICU/respiratory support, as long as there is enough oxygen and mechanical ventilation available 15 of those will fully recover, 5 will die or have chronic lung damage. Given the availability of ventilators, the long term rate will be “close” (whatever that means!) to 4%.
Any side bets?
I'm also assuming everyone who needs ICU care gets ICU care...
Well said!
"Half way" is not a valid estimate. Let me give a simple example. I go into gas stations, subway stations, walmart, niemen marcus, and a similar variety of online forums and recruit people for my AIDS mortality study with a suitable payment. I reject anyone without AIDS and select randomly from the rest. I follow them for a couple years and see how many die of AIDS.
Meanwhile you go to a hospital ICU, find the patients with AIDS and randomly select from those. Which mortality study will be more representative? Do you think "half way" between the two studies is a valid estimate?
You and I agree. . . Accidents can, and unfortunately do, happen. Jumping to conclusions that it’s an engineered weapon is the least likely scenario because of how poorly it performs as a “weaponized” virus. However, as one that is being replicated in a lab for study and just gets released? That can work. I’ve seen reports how sloppy some students, in particular, can get in virology labs.
I am reminded of 3M and POST-IT NOTES.
They were trying to make a 'super' glue. One of the failures was a glue that didn't stick very well at all. It went on to become one of 3M's most popular adhesive products.
It is possible that this virus was a product of the same process. None of the complex engineered mutations worked, but one batch showed a unique combination of what are normally natural mutations.
This has been going on for nearly a quarter of a century.
Given what’s been done and to what microbe, I’m surprised we haven’t seen some catastrophe before now.
I’m thankful there are deep antiviral research programs with actual viable compounds now. If this had happened 20 years ago this would be a whole ‘nother story.
However, it’s early yet. Let’s hope this doesn’t mutate around any compounds we do have and we have enough compound in question to put out any brush fires.
Still high, but not society killing.
But I also make a jillion assumptions, including that everyone who needs ICU care gets it.
Not anymore. . . They took skydive out the window and went splat!
And some people find bunny rabbits in the clouds. That’s what this is. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Right. We have a great test of the hospital and ICU cohort rates coming up: the West. Anyone found with coronavirus in the west is guaranteed to get top notch care in the west. They will all, 100%, go to the hospital, or get completely monitored in some other quarantine if they are not sick. It's also guaranteed for now that any of the sickest who need ICU will get in to an ICU. Would not surprise me that the ICU cohort will have 50% mortality here in the west.
And the rest will be less than 2%, probably much less. Then the only remaining question will be how many of the total will end up in ICU. If that ratio is high, then we have your worst case scenario. I don't think it will be, but it is unknown for now.
Maybe it isn't a weaponized virus. Maybe it was a mistake, or a mutation from an originally engineered virus.
Maybe the Chinese scientist in Canada took samples to China and somehow the little buggers got out. Or some scientist passed on the documentation to the Chinese and they created some, which got out.
Final point: Regardless to how it came to be, it is out. After it's under control, maybe they can figure out how it really started.
Grocers nationwide thank you for your support in this timely and series issue ...
I know.
I’m amazed at that people who think chickens aren’t born shrinkwrapped!
Yes it is. But over here, we send out people in full hazmat gear for a white powder spill in auto accidents on the roads. In a bureaucracy, when you don’t know what you are facing you start at the highest level and work your way down.
In the background information of the article on the #1 patient in the US with novel coronavirus who had just come from Wuhan, China, it made the point that the Chinese had noticed an inordinate number of people associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market area who had developed pneumonia by December 31, 2019. These bio-protected workers were checking the condition of an ill traveler who had arrived from Wuhan post those reports. It was likely a rational response until they knew what they were facing.
What happens at your local hospital when 100 people need a ventilator at the same time?
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