Posted on 01/26/2020 12:25:43 AM PST by Zhang Fei
You would think it would have happened by now if the 1918 influenza pandemic could happen again. We move around a heck of a lot more than in that era, and have for decades. But general health and nutrition is also much better.
Freegards
Also it might be a good idea to get a pneumonia shot... the shot only works against bacterial pneumonia but that can be a secondary problem with the flu ... any flu.
“I’d stay out of WalMart.”
Eh, I’m not sure about that. Those things sit around for quite a while before they hit retail shelves.
But, I’ll tell you this. Today I went to an outlet mall that, however it works, caters to foreign visitors. They do have a lot of high end stores, Brooks Brothers, LeCrueset, etc. All the announcements are in every language you ever heard, and you see flyers about shipping your purchases home, stuff like that.
So, I had to go there to return a Xmas present (did great at Gap Factory too, product placement!) and all I could think was: there might be infected Chinese tourists there! No disrespect to anyone intended, but I just kept my eyes open and didn’t see anyone who “triggered” me. Except for maybe one old lady, but I’m not even sure she was Chinese or even Asian.
Quite true as many of those who succumb to an illness,
may have an already compromised immune system, or having a secondary illness.
The initial medical issue may have put the patient in an already compromised
and weakened (even a bacterial illness) position.
I get the virality coefficient, but I don't understand the Twitter reference. Explain?
One reason why China is more prone to new flu strains is the sheer variety of things they eat, because their religions really don’t have any forbidden foods.
Thank you! I’m continuing to watch and weigh words of nations compared to actions.
https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/?search=China+Coronavirus&lang=a
Tell your wife thank you very much! We’ll be cool and prepare as best we can, taking the usual minor precautions for now (wash hands, don’t touch face, avoid close contact, etc.).
The planes haven’t stopped because the elites WANT it to spread.
When they complain about way too many people everyone always thinks it’s the OTHER way too many people, not anyone they know.
They want ALL of us to die.
No clue if THIS is the ‘big one’ but the elites haven’t given up hope that’s for sure.
That’s not gonna be too good for their stock portfolios.
50 years ago I’d have agreed.
They have more money than they know what to do with.
Now they’re using their money to get rid of the rest of us somehow (abortion, etc).
What was your assumption for the time it takes each person (actually the virus they are carrying) to become infectious?
With most viruses, as I understand it, one is not infectious until the incubation period has run it’s course and symptoms present - however mild they might be at the beginning. I suspect this is not the precise “one phase ends, the next begins” that it is often made out to be, and that one’s own infectiousness “ramps up”, perhaps being at a low level before symptoms are detectable.
Then the incubation period itself can vary greatly from one individual to another. I’ve read it can be anywhere from 1 to 14 days. What is “typical” for 2019-nCoV I don’t know, and I don’t even know if it could determined accurately this early on in a setting where many potential contacts might exist.
Additionally, some reports indicate 2019-nCoV can be infectious during the incubation period. I very much doubt this would be likely in the first half of the incubation period, assuming a single time of exposure. But this could be related to that “ramp up” of infectiousness I was speculating about, or perhaps for some victims there is an extended period of very low level symptoms coupled with a significant degree of infectiousness.
(Several times in the past I have thought I had a cold starting, then seem to “stall” (only mild symptoms), then it’d seem to almost disappear for a few days, and just about the time I thought, “yeah, I have this beat”, it’d roar back as a full fledged head cold and put me in bed for a day or two. I was probably infectious the whole time, but, HOW infectious each day? Hmmm.)
All that makes for quite complicated & tedious “predicting” or computation. However, one can crunch it down into a sort of average: Let’s say that for 2019-nCoV, each person infected becomes infectious in 4 days, and infects 3 other people, all on that 4th day, and thereafter is out of the picture.
Day 0 = 41 infected.
Day 4 = 123 infected.
Day 8 = 369 infected.
Day 12 = 1107 infected.
Day 16 = 3321 infected.
And so on.
That is “way simplistic”, but gives some idea of the progress of the disease.
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