No one is taking the long view. Whatever power that Soleimani had within Iran, he was clearly the linchpin of Iran’s external efforts — all of them. Even with Soleimani fully in charge, these efforts were imploding as the resources to fund them dried up.
So as Iran is dealing with some of the greatest internal unrest since the Shah was deposed. And the hammer being used to manage, incentivize and discipline extra-national forces is now dead at a time when Iran’s resources and influence were already waning.
If I am Hezbollah, what is my prediction vis-a-vis Iran going forward? What do the Iraqis anticipate? And so forth. It can’t be anything other than grim; and clearly even grimmer today than three days ago.
Iran can assert all they want that they will now go on the offensive against the US, but the situation unambiguously points to the need for Iran to be defending the entrenched interests it already has in place and that are exceedingly vulnerable at this pregnant moment in history.
To strike boldly at the US now would be an act of desperation rather than rational and calculating strategy. Even if the Iranians could pull this off, their best move would be to bide their time and deal with more imminent matters first.
What you said is all true, imho -- but that doesn't mean the mullahcracy won't strike in a desperate act. I suspect their main blow will be against Europe, or less possibly through greater spending on internal enemies, like the Jihad Squad, and nearby problems, like illegals at our southern border.