U.S. trade deficit in goods drops 5.4% in November to a 27-month low

Marketwatch ^ | December 30, 2019 | Jeffrey Bartash

[lasereye]

The numbers: The nation’s trade deficit in goods fell sharply in November for the second month in a row and touched the lowest level in more than two years, but it’s probably not enough to prevent the annual gap in 2019 from being the largest in 11 years.

The trade gap in goods fell 5.4% to $63.2 billion in November from a revised $66.8 billion in the prior month, according to advanced figures released by the government. That’s the lowest level since August 2017.

[lasereye]

It's grossly misleading to compare the trade deficit number to the last 11 years (or any other time period) since the nominal GDP, i.e. not adjusted for inflation, is much larger now than 11 years ago, or even 5 years ago. This year's trade deficit may be the lowest in years, in a non-recession year, as a percentage of GDP.

[Timocrat]

All Trump’s fault. Oh wait.

[VanDeKoik]

Actually saw a Bloomberg ad 2 minutes ago on YouTube saying “we got it wrong last time...”.

Yeah. Sure...ok, Mike.

[EnglishOnly]

Awesome!

Way to GO President TRUMP!

[cba123]

Trump is on the right path, but we still have a TERRIBLE trade deficit with China.

Let’s not build this up yet.

It is still awful.

Not much different from last month.

[central_va]

Import tariffs should be sky high until the trade deficit is zero per year.

[MAGAlady]

Right. I believe it’s the lowest and has continued to drop since POTUS was elected.

[familyop]

Now that’s winning!

[trebb]

And this week the ChiComs sign phase one of the deal Trump has been working on...takes time to overcome and turn such inertia around w/o causing a lot of damage.

[Paul R.]

Correct. I’d love to see that graph.

It’d also be useful to estimate the impact of the Chinese pig epidemic. They simply have no need to buy as much feed grain from us as in the recent past.

[Svartalfiar]

I’m confused... How can it be the largest in the past 11 years, when it’s the smallest in the past two years?

Are they mixing figures and units like they do for budget ‘cuts’?

[lasereye]

The MONTHLY deficit is the lowest in over two years, but it’s still highest for the year as a whole since 11 years ago. The only way both of those can be true is if the drop in the trade deficit has been quite sharp in the last month.

[Svartalfiar]

The MONTHLY deficit is the lowest in over two years, but it’s still highest for the year as a whole since 11 years ago. The only way both of those can be true is if the drop in the trade deficit has been quite sharp in the last month.

Ah I see. I was reading it to say the Nov drop was giving us the lowest yearly numbers this year. Fail.

[Forgotten Amendments]

We had trade surpluses during the Great Depression. This stat is a moronic tool used by labor unions and the economically illiterate. Beware!

[lasereye]

Well yes the US trade deficit tends to decline during recessions, so it’s not necessarily a sign that things are getting better. But we’re not in a recession or heading into one.