[Eleutheria5]

Under normal circumstances, you'd be right. But this election year, I think it can be done. When you have a totally dysfunctional Democratic incumbent, a strong Republican can win. That's what gave NYC two terms of Rudy Giuliani, a legendary mayor who replaced a mediocrity. This coming year, you have a dysfunctional mayor in NYC, DiBlasio. You have a dysfunctional Congresswoman, AOC, who is only good at making a spectacle of herself and chasing away billion-dollar business from her district. Likewise, in San Francisco you have a dysfunctional, ineffective Congresswoman who's about to lose her speaker-ship. In Santa Monica, you have this psychotic bug-eyed weasel who's just acted the fool repeatedly on national TV, and has no self-awareness whatever. Under these circumstances, with the right people, anything is possible, because the Democrats have totally discredited themselves and mis-played the very hefty hand that was dealt them in 2018. 2020 will be the year that elephants can fly, and even crows will vote for them.

[Dave W]

Well, I give you a lot of credit for your enthusiasm and the belief that these three could actually be turned out of office and I agree with your reasoning to a point.

However, I think voters approach a mayoral contest and a congressional seat with different things in mind. Giuliani won out of the desperation for voters to feel safe just from walking home at night or walking the dog. The city was completely degraded in many ways and is a lot different from asking a vote for someone who will support Trump in the House. The district includes Greenwich Village and has the largest concentration of the Jewish vote in the country.

For Santa Monica, this district is home to many of the Hollywood elite and is also the land of ballot harvesting. Instead, I see, Schiff having a parade and hero worshipped.

And for San Francisco, how does one of the most liberal districts in the country turn out a sitting Speaker? I think she is very effective in that she keeps her troops in line (AOC is the exception), they vote as told and pass the legislation they want. As opposed to the waffling Ryan who was always seen in a war between two factions of a party.

I just looked up each district out of curiosity. The NY 10th, Nadler won with 82% of the vote in 2018 and the republican won the balance. For 2020, no republicans are running at this time, but there are 4 other democrats running in the democrat primary. AOC has promised to run other candidates against sitting members and I think Nadler is one of those targeted by her, but with 4 primary opponents, they will split the vote, so Nadler should win the nomination easily.

Without all the detail, I looked up the Cook Partisan Index for each congressional seat. For Pelosi CA-12, it is D +37 which means it is 37 points more democrat than the nation as a whole; Schiff CA-28 - D +28; NY-10 - it is D +26.

I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I don't see a groundswell of NY and CA voters turning on their icons and seating a candidate who will support Trump.