I going to go out on limb and make a prediction that I actually hope is wrong.
Within days of Trump and Xi signing off on the phase one deal in Chile the Chinese military will begin a massive crackdown on the Hong Kong protesters. First one, then the other.
It’s interesting that the protests in Hong Kong seemed to have dissipated in the last few days. Maybe they can read the tea leaves as well as I can.
Your prediction about the Chinese military moving on HK likely will not happen for two reasons:
1. A cursory reading of what’s in the deal shows China did not gain anything other than a reprieve of the 5% tariff increase scheduled to begin on Oct 15, though it is something they desperately wanted. So they still have much to fear and likely wouldn’t dare take any drastic action regarding HK.
(As an aside, other than a one-time agriculture purchase that the communists desperately need, I don’t see anything new for the US, either. There’s no formal document on the deal (when agreeing on the final language is no easy task as prior negotiations proved); nothing on enforcement mechanism against future IP theft; no detail at all about currency manipulation. Then there is opening up China’s financial sector, which is exactly where China needs an infusion of capital the most, well, it just contradicts the President’s previous call for American businesses to leave China. Maybe the President saw the need amid all the impeachment madness to change his strategies, at least in presentation if not in substance.)
2. The Chinese communist party has found a better way to deal with the HK protesters without risking any backlash from the West, and it can be summed up like this: Hundreds of suspicious suicides just in the last couple of months and accusations of rape by a university student previously detained by police. And the fact the public mass transit system has been regularly shut down is the reason we won’t see millions of people marching in one location anymore.
https://theaiorganization.com/artificial-intelligence-with-facial-recognition-hunts-hongkong-youth-for-capture-rape-so-called-suicide/