[rodguy911]

Is it just me or is that a tight little circle of hurricane force winds? Gotta wonder if that's likely to expand or not?
My guess is one of the worst factors of this storm will be if it slows down and starts dumping lots and lots of rain.Along with higher than normal tides that could be a really bad flooding scenario.
Do you buy Bernies theory of the upper level low off the keys steering Dorian for now and than Sunday night a hand-off to an upper level low which seems difficult to define?

[alancarp]

Hearing that 'hand-off' theory from multiple sources and it's not uncommon for other storm types, too, so yeah - that has a ring of truth to it.

It is a relatively compact storm, but that can change. Here's a quote from popsci.com about that:

"When Irma rapidly grew into a hurricane on the morning of August 31, 2017, its hurricane force winds only extended 15 miles from the center of the storm. To put that in perspective, the storm's core of intense winds was only about the size of Florida's Lake Okeechobee. But by the time Irma made landfall 10 days later, it was large enough to engulf the entire state."

They go on to suggest that storms grow as their organization improves and evolves. Eyewall replacement cycles contribute to this, too. Dorian is looking really good right now with a cleared-out eye, so... tomorrow might mean some changes.

Unfortunately, a slowing storm may also help it grow before landfall. Oy.