“Right now, the models are starting to converge, but all points from Ft. Lauderdale to Ft. Pierce are definitely in play... with changes still quite plausible since it’s still 3-4 days out.”
If you had to make an educated guess/roll the dice, etc., where are you thinking landfall will happen?
True landfall near Emerald Isle, NC Lower Outer Banks or down to Myrtle Beach.
This will be the case if the storm “pauses” in North-Mid Center of the Bahamas— who will get plastered in Eleuthra and Nassau— taking max winds at 2 O’Clock position in the counterclockwise wind rotation (the worst place to be in a hurricane in this hemisphere— 2 O’Clock position, with storm path direction being at 12 “Noon” on the circle of rotation). After the “pause” or slowdown— the upper level Low that was drawing it West will move away over Florida Bay , Florida Straits and the Keys- and disconnect the “low”— handing it off as it were to the prominent descending Low coming down all the way from New England, matched in the West with a huge High area/trough. Will pull it North from where ever it finally “pauses”-— IF it does.
Praying for the pause to occur well out to sea/in the unfortunate but highly experienced Bahamas— and thus spare the entire FL Peninsula. Tides will be high and flooding possible but not a CAT 4 waltzing up the coast. This would be best scenario.
Couldn’t possibly guess...not nearly educated enough.