Trying to do some street analysis here using Andrew data on excel. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/andrew1992/index.html (flight level data -> position vs time)
So Andrew hit Miami while it started 10 degree more north than Dorian, but Andrew was slower, thus its trajectory flatter.
Hurricanes tend to speed up going flat westard and then move up north and start slowing down because of corriolis. That results in a flattening of their trajectory back towards a more westward path which tends to reaccelerate then.
Dorian is at 11 mph northwestard, Andrew was at 8-9 its most westwardly and 6 Northwestwarly.
So Dorian displaces almost twice as fast as Andrew. THat means it will overshoot most likely the ANdrew path Northward and hit north of Andrew. It will start flattening out West north West maybe at the level of Miami when Andrew was going full West and even a bit South.
My bet is that it will accelerate Westward and hit Cap Canaveral instead of going to Jacksonville.
So I say 10% it hits just North of Miami , 90% between Cap Canaveral and Jacksonville, betting 50% Cap Canaveral to Daytona and 40% Daytona-Jacksonville.
Make your bets
Actually I would say 50% West palm Beach to cap CAnaveral and 40% Cap Canaveral to Jacksonville. 10% South of west palm beach
I’m thinking between the Cape and Melbourne, Monday afternoon/evening. Just hoping it stays small (ish).
Jupiter to ft. Pierce