I do not know what will be the "Cause" of the drop - Usually it is something unexpected.
Also there are Cycles - 2000, 2007 and there is a reversion to mean (200 day average)
Large amount of Debt (Corporate and other). Take a look at GE and pay attention to Car Sales and Oil
Sure the markets are cyclic but the sell off is not by any means. My question is where do you get the “50% sell off” from?
You’ve heard the phrase, “Experts have called 25 out of the past 3 recessions”?
Out economy is always either coming out of or heading towards a recession. It has been so for as long as I can remember and I have been involved in investing for over 40 yrs and so follow these things closely.
You could be right about the size of the sell off but you have an equal chance of being wrong. In other words it is a pure guess. As for it being caused by something as yet known, that is always a possibility.
Not to sound disrespectful since that is surely not my intent but you’re simply guessing and yours is a mostly worst case scenario (although it could actually be even worse than that) but it also could be wrong in that the unknown we speak of could be a positive one such as a discovery allowing for an unlimited non polluting energy source.
In the end I agree there will be at some point a recession but how deep or how long is anyone’s pure guess.