Posted on 08/17/2019 5:25:27 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Thanks for the book suggestion - haven’t read it, but intend to.
Have had a huge interest in WWII for years.
By ‘44, the production numbers for almost everything were simply staggering.
Indeed. Even by 1942 our production was more than Germany, Italy and Japan combined.
In reading that book, more than once I had a "Holy Smokes" moment at how quickly things were built: a plane every five minutes; 150 tons of steel per minute; eight aircraft carriers per month, three Liberty ships a day, etc., etc.
Also the ingenuity of Americans - a shipyard built from the ground up in six months; one welder invented a tool that welded studs at the rate of 1,000 per hour, compared to the previous 40; a barrel for the Bofors 40mm AA gun took the Swedes 3 1/2 hours to rifle, we broached them in 15 minutes, etc., etc.
No wonder they were called "The Greatest Generation".
Thank God we didn’t outsource our steel production back then.
Industrial production numbers:
December 2018 - 107.5
March 2019 - 106.3
June 2019 - 106.1
July 2019 - 105.7
That article is from 2014. The heart of the Obama Administration.
You really don’t get it do you? You are posting statistics that disprove your point.
The original link you shared has the chart that I posted. It’s current and shows manufacturing production well above zero, up to July 19.
Your last post merely shows a slight decline on industrial production...from 106.3 in March 2019...to July 2019 105.7.
That is a relative decline in month to month, that is not how you gauge a recession.
Another example with GDP, which is the real recession but same concept that is not met with your data.
Example: GDP 2050 Q1 2.5%
2060 Q2 1.5% This is merely a decline percentage wise...and what your are incorrectly calling a recession.
Here is a real recession Q1 -1.5 %
Q2 -0.75 %
***That is two consecutive Quarters of negative growth (below Zero) and would put you into recession.
Let me help you out here.
Go to the IPManufacturing link.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN#0
Select the 1 year time period
Select the orange settings icon
For units, select percent change
For frequency, select quarterly
This will give you a graph that shows a growth rate in 1Q19 of -0.45%. For 2Q19, the value is -0.77%. That is two consecutive quarters with a negative growth rate. And 3Q19 has started with a further decline.
You are either dense or a complete NeverTrumper.
It’s a decline month over month nimrod.
Not a negative, less than zero value.
We are not even close to to zero, negative nor a manufacturing recession.
You may want to try an econ class.
Even your instructions prove you are without a clue.
For units, select percent change.
Percent change by quarter proves you don’t know what you are talking about...that is a relative month to month change.
Take a Fing Econ class.
>>>It’s a decline month over month nimrod. Not a negative, less than zero value.
What do you think is happening in your GDP example. It’s not that GDP is less tahm zero, its that the growth rate - the change from the prior quarter - is negative. That’s what I am showing in my example, which is confirmed by the Bloomberg article to which I linked.
You are incorrect.
Recession is met when you have 2 consecutive quarters of negative (less than Zero GDP) - not declining growth, quarter to quarter.
You can have your NeverTrumper opinions all you like. You do not get to have your own facts and change the definitions of words.
Ok, so help me understand. What value would qualify as a Manufactring recession relative to the Dec 2018 data point of 107.5?
That’s part of the problem, you are using indexes. Recession is measured by GDP, to smooth out all of the different sector cycles.
But, if you want to look at Industrial output, here is the accurate numbers.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production So, yes, the world is in Recession and China is growing much slower, so the US, though declining is holding strong relative to the world.
I’m not saying we are in an economic recession for the total economy. I said the manufacturing sector is in recession, so the IP index is the relevant measure, not GDP. The chart you sent was total industrial production, not just manufacturing. Also, the data presented was YOY, not QOQ. GDP is measured QOQ and that is also how I am measuring IP manufacturing.
Industrial is a better indicator as it takes in everything produced...but I’ll post the manufacturing production too.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-production
Q1 is pretty good, boosted by a big February.
Q2 is not as good, but still in positive territory wit a .1. Also I believe Manufacturing numbers will be revised up for July, based on Man. Indexes being revised up.
Q3 not off to a good start but even if next two month don’t make it up, that only 1 quarter - you need 2 for a recession.
Strong Retail sales today with Target, so we aren’t even close to an overall Recession.
>>>Strong Retail sales today with Target, so we aren’t even close to an overall Recession
I agree with you on that. The consumer is in a good spot.
That was one amazing book, FRiend, and I use that adjective in all sincerity.
Lordy, I knew it had all been a production colossus, but had had no idea of the nuts/bolts immensity of it all !
Thanks very much for the recommendation.
It most certainly reinforces my utter loathing ofr any and all flavors of Keynesian statist fools.
Thank you. In the past year, I have read it three times, as it always made me feel good about this country.
Part of it also, is wondering how far we'd get today, with all the regulatory roadblocks involved.
Hernando de Soto wrote an 1989 book titled "The Other Path" in which he mentioned, among other things, that one criteria of a nation was how long it took to get something done. At that time, we were head and shoulders above the rest. Today, not so much.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.