Replies

[I suppose, in a western way of thinking, there isn’t any reason for China to send troops. But this is China and they already have had several senior government officials basically saying that troops are ready to hit the ground but just need HK’s approval. Besides, China doesn’t do anything without a reason.]

Xi Jinping is extremely intolerant and domineering. That is the meaning of his massive crackdowns on religious belief in China, with people of all religions ending up in gulags. Hongkongers out on the streets may finally get him to the point that he mows thousands of protestors down, pour encourageur les autres. His position is secure - all the factional rivals in high Party positions appointed by other people (Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin, et al) have been replaced with his handpicked people. He is effectively Mao Zedong redux - what he says goes, meaning he can literally have someone killed on his orders without any talkback.

Re sanctions - the sanctions on China after Tiananmen Square were mild, and business as usual, except for defense-related items, resumed in a few short years. That was at a time when China was a nit in the global economy - it exported little and imported little. Now that it is a major market for many countries (including Hollywood, for which it is one of the biggest foreign markets with almost $800m worth of foreign revenues*), it would take serious political will to impose major sanctions on China over the killing of a few thousand protestors.

* https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2017/12/27/china-2017-box-office-wrap-up-hollywood-movies-grab-3-4-billion-universal-rules/#349950ae233e

“Xi Jinping is extremely intolerant and domineering.”

I agree with this.

But moreso, he is weak. There is a power vacuum. All the long marchers are dead.

Jiang and Hu were designated by Deng before he died.

Now it’s pure power struggle among a group who have no “Mandate of Heaven”.

They know it and so does everyone in China.

"Hongkongers out on the streets may finally get him to the point that he mows thousands of protestors down, pour encourageur les autres."

It's kill the chicken to scare the monkeys

杀鸡儆猴

In this case Hong Kong would be the chicken.

I still, though, can't believe they would or will massacre people in Hong Kong like in a Beijing in 1989.

It's pretty much impossible. Xi is not that stupid.

But military marshall law I can see.

Either way is wrong and violates joint agreement.

“sanctions on China after Tiananmen Square were mild, and business as usual”

Yes.

And even worse. Only a month after, Bush secretly sent Brent Scowcroft and Lawrence Eagleburger to Beijing to assure Li Peng everything was fine and to ignore the public pronouncements condemning the massacre.

True scum.