Thank you for your analysis. So why were the pollsters and pundits wrong?
Not my field. Antony Green (who is one of the nation’s top commentators on polling numbers) thinks it’s because people no longer have landline phones and that was the mechanism that gave reliable results - and they haven’t found anything that works to replace it yet.
Speaking only for myself, I lie to pollsters. Every chance I get. I'm a left handed, transitioning, Mohammedi xymale who thinks Hillary is hot.