That’s the key problem, that approval doesn’t equal votes. Breaking the awful attachment Blacks have for the Slave Party has been a vexing problem post-1964.
Not at one to one. But it does equal votes at some point.
Mike Sheppard, who has followed this extensively for two years, and I agree that it’s somewhere around 3:2-—that for every 3 points of approval Trump will get 2 votes. HOWEVER-—that this is every bit as big a key: in 2016 3% of blacks stayed home in key states, FL, PA, NC, MI. In at least FL and PA, they were very nearly the difference (certainly they were in PA, in FL, it would have been about a tie if 3% more blacks turned out).
So Mike and I estimate that in that 3:2 ratio, the other 1% are opting not to vote for anyone. That in itself is huge.