Posted on 12/10/2018 8:10:08 PM PST by caww
U.S. steel mills have seen almost a 5 percent jump in shipments so far this year, a sign that it's benefiting from stiff 25 percent tariffs on imports the Trump administration imposed last year.
The American Iron and Steel Institute reported Monday that U.S. mills shipped 8.1 million tons in October, up 4.6 percent from the previous month and up 6 percent from the same period last year. So far this year, the industry has shipped 79.6 million net tons, 4.6 percent more than it had by this point last year.
AISI spokesman Jake Murphy told the Washington Examiner that domestic steel use has increased 1.4 percent so far in 2018, and that "Section 232 has played a crucial role as well," referring to section of trade law used by the Trump administration to justify the tariffs
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
This after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce today demanded that tariffs on steel and aluminum be lifted.
Boy, I dunno. The stocks of steel companies have been scorched. Alcoa is at a 2 year low. X, RS, STLD all at about 1 year lows. (Yes, I know many stocks are at 1 year lows right now, but “1 year low” in the case of these stocks is 40% off their former highs; for most other stocks, its 10-20%) It’s certainly not likely these will be candidates for wild bullishness this time of year after they have deteriorated all year, OTOH, I have found one of the best times to buy stocks is (rhetorically speaking) 12/31 of any year, when the last holdout has been more or less forced to take their tax harvest.
The Chamber of Commerce is a fickle friend at best.
Ignore them.
It takes no less than two years to see the yield on steel investments (or tariffs.)
Bkmk
Re: 4
Wow, though up that comment all by yourself?
Amazing, And almost all in capital letters to show you are serious.
I am still hopeful of breaking even, but once I get out, I'm not going back into steel again.
Aye matey, i'm 33% in cash now and trying to decide whats likely a bargain. All seems dismal, could just be seasonal affective disorder. I've got one fund I realized I was losing $1000/day on for the last 20 trading days, still above 1/1/18 but wow.
Not willing to touch anything until age 59.5 but it's starting to look like prepper-ing, though not necessary, is a more stable option. Also looked at buying a house across from the University and living in the guesthouse while renting main house to students, heheh. You shoulda seen the house my nephew rented over there, holes in the floor you could look through and see the rats looking back atcha...landlord spared no expense, heheh.
but no! the steel industry is recovering! noooooo.....
Alcoa is an international operation:
https://www.alcoa.com/global/en/who-we-are/locations/default.asp
Alcoa imports its Aluminium into the US.. it doesn’t produce domestically NEARLY enough for domestic supply...
bump
The stock market is a globalist gambling casino.
If you can stomach that (rent to the frat bros) I support that. There is a whole school of thought (eg; do’s and don’ts) which I won’t go into nor do I hold myself out as an expert, but if you can live in the guesthouse (formula for a single man, not a normal family)
It largely depends upon your relative valuation of cashflow vs cap gains and how much work you might be able to do on your own. I like the cashflow profiles of that kind of investment, but it shall not be without its headaches.
I am more a trader than a LT investor; but I try to “suggest” based upon a more LT approach. I have some inklings of a very late Dec rally and it could be a RYFO (rip your face off) but I am not especially sanguine for much higher stock prices in the semi-near future.
The market has treated X (in particular) and the various steels like pure crap. I do not know why, but I try not to argue with charts, prices, etc;
X was $128 in 2008. I don’t know how that happened either, it was a commodity frenzy I suppose.
(random thought #1) This is not my original thought, but IMHO, there is some chance that the X, GE, many others will declare a strategic BK in order to shed 60+ year old pension obligations.
(random thought #2) X, AA = VERY good lessons that what appears in the news and the impression(s) you may derive therefrom is a TERRIBLE way to invest. I would bet that most folks thought the metals mfrs would advance in a tariff regime. *I* did. I did not invest that way.
if you can live in the guesthouse (formula for a single man, not a normal family)
yah, kids grown up, wife spends most of her time out of the house trying to stay active so as to stave off the impact of disability. We do have a large lot (5 acres with water & power) 30 mins from the U, I was thinking of building an inexpensive house or two there. If there's a slump I imagine we'll still be able to build on it if we have some stable income property that's a neutral or positive investment even discounting the benefit of primary residence. Across the street from the U and a major teaching hospital pretty much guarantees renters, but ooooh renting to undergrads and medical students in the local locus of liberal leanings might be too exciting for us.
Yeah, well...
The tradeoff is; Mom & Dad pay the rents so those are far more reliable compared to renting to a random array of tenants.
I guess any rental RE can make sense if you provide for the excess wear & tear.
Maybe you hand off the mgmt to an actual, real property manager @ 10% of the rents. You still have to finance to repairs, of course. But the repairs need not be done to Beverly Hills standards.
Finally, is there an opportunity to rent the place or part of the place via air B’nB during the slack summer months? *Are* there slack summer months?
I *am* supportive of the general shape of the investment. It’s of course whether the predictable (and unpredictable) headaches are manageable.
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