“Highly tenuous”
And of course, it doesn’t matter how tenuous. At this point, looks like they’ll probably impeach on any specious Mueller report or SDNY findings, even election funds issues.
If the GOP Senate convicts him (doubtful), Pence or not (if Pence survived, it’d likely mean he was complicit with the RINOs), then the GOP is over; 3rd Party, and maybe even secessions and CW2.
If no conviction, it’s only posturing for 2020.