This is key for 2020 also.
The R’s will be defending 20 Senate seats (including this one, and McCain’s in AZ currently held by John Kyl). Kyle apparently intends to resign after completing the current session, and the talk is that McSally gets the appointment to finish out the two years left on the term.
The D’s will be defending 14 Senate seats, including Alabama, which I am counting as a pick up - probably a swap for Collins seat in Maine.
Anyway, this 53 is effectively a 54 because of the built in advantage in Alabama. That would mean the D’s would need to pick up a total of 5 seats, (Collins + 4 more) to gain outright control in the Senate.
Trying hard not to count chickens here, but provided Trump is re-elected, we could easily have at least 4 more years of judicial appointments (until the next midterms in 2022), not just two.
That could be two or even three more SCOTUS picks in 4 years, and a majority originalist Federal Judiciary.
You are correct!
Given current population and demographic trends it is quite possible that the Dems will never take the Senate again. It may end up being a totally safe bastion for the Repubs.