[TrumpCoat]

I was curious about Orange County as well, so I dug into its precinct information. (There is one in my history but it's based on % turnout of registered voters, not % turnout of 2016).

What I found was amazing. There is a near-linear correlation with Trump vote percentages and turnout relative to 2016. I truncated the axes to make the linear correlation more obvious; there's only a handful of dots outside of the axis. Each dot represents an individual precinct in Orange.



I think what we are seeing is that the NeverTrumper Republicans were disproportionately in cities (not rural areas). They stayed home in 2016 but are turning out this year.

[Starboard]

I think what we are seeing is that the NeverTrumper Republicans were disproportionately in cities (not rural areas). They stayed home in 2016 but are turning out this year.

***************

That’s an interesting observation. The NT’s have gotten over their resentment and are highly motivated to vote because of the insane Democrat antics and the threat they pose to a vibrant economy.

I also believe that this is not your grandfather’s mid-term election. Trump’s indefatigable campaigning, his incredible economic progress, and his numerous promises kept have changed the entire nature of the mid-terms. That and the fact that the polls are not accurately representing conservative voters opinions combine to make this election much different from those in the past.

Because of this, I think Republicans are going to do very well tonight. The media and the punditocracy are going to be shocked.

[Ravi]

Sumter County, FL (red): 81.6% of registered Reps have now cast ballots (42,652/52,251).