[sitetest]

I don’t know if anyone’s noted it, but 538 has reduced the odds of Party of Satan taking the House to 39%.

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1059979491374718981

Josh Jordan

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@NumbersMuncher
11m
11 minutes ago

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The 538 forecast has dropped to just a 39.3% chance that the Democrats take the House tonight.

That is something that was unthinkable just 24 hours ago for most...

Still a lot of time to go tonight, but this is not the start to #ElectionNight that Democrats wanted.

[fhayek]

Not that I mind the trend, but how can an analyst continually revise their probability of something up until the event takes place...

1:00 am I predict the sun has only a 3% chance of rising tomorrow.
3:00 am I predict the sun now has a 40% chance of rising tomorrow.
6:30 am I now predict that the sun now has a 99.3% chance of rising.

Who would follow someone like that?