Just an observation. The highest EV+Mail over performer for Dems was Duval county at +3% vs 2016.
ED voting for Duval is R+3.6% and D -0.3%
On the other hand, EV+Mail for Citrus was R+3.2% vs 2016.
ED voting for Citrus is R+6.4% and D -2.5%
I don’t know how to quantify cannibalization of ED votes by EV, but this seems to me to point towards that possibility.
That’s pretty interesting
At least in your example, Duval Dems have cannibalized.
Yet in Citrus, Citrus Reps have not cannibalized.
BTW, we are catching up to the Dems in Duval.
Publisher of FloridaPolitics.com tweeted out:
“As of 1:26 p.m., in the counties reporting in real-time (see previous tweets for list, mostly Dem strongholds):
GOP has a 122,073 #ElectionDay ballot lead (+12.13). Overall, turnout is GOP +1.68 with an 104,472 ballot lead.”