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Florida Early Vote update, 11/03/2018
https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion ^ | 11/03/2018 | self

Posted on 11/03/2018 5:29:02 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

Totals for Florida early vote.

Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 67,540

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 10,638

Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 56,902

At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 5,280

The REP lead has ranged from 53K to 75K over the past week.

Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.

Ballots have not been counted yet.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms; fl2018
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To: TrumpCoat

Exactly! The demographics are right there at the AZ website. 70 to 80% of the votes are in. Does not compute.

Plus TargetEarly has 18-29 and 30-39 at combined total of 17%.


101 posted on 11/04/2018 2:03:16 PM PST by Ravi
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To: TrumpCoat

Not what any of the R internals showing.

BTW, Richard Baris just told me that Enema now has to win 72% of ALL indies to be even.


102 posted on 11/04/2018 2:52:51 PM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS

I’ll see if I can produce a graph that estimates I turnout by I support of Trump for AZ like I did with FL and NV.


103 posted on 11/04/2018 2:54:43 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: janetjanet998

But remember, we (Fl) went into ED 2016 way down...waaaay down. And Fl. went red.

I vote on Election Day. Lots of us gop voters do. I voted early once about 10 years ago. Felt like a cheater! But I don’t disagree with the idea particularly, as long as it’s a limited time period.


104 posted on 11/04/2018 3:23:01 PM PST by SE Mom (Screaming Eagle mom)
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To: TrumpCoat

Where are you getting that 80% of votes are in?


105 posted on 11/04/2018 4:01:19 PM PST by DrewsMum
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To: DrewsMum

He’s educated guessing. 1.4 million are in. I think AZ turnout will be 2 million so I think 70% is in.


106 posted on 11/04/2018 4:53:30 PM PST by Ravi
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To: Ravi

That is probably close. I was just wondering if there was solid info.


107 posted on 11/04/2018 5:10:51 PM PST by DrewsMum
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To: DrewsMum

It’s actually 1.48 million that are in. I just checked. 2.4 million votes 2016. Going by my 80% of 2016 turnout gives you about 2 million. Let’s see...


108 posted on 11/04/2018 5:19:46 PM PST by Ravi
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To: Ravi

I’m sorry. I’ve been looking at AZ...
not Florida...I was responding with AZ in my head.

I’m crunching numbers myself. my brain is mush. I’m just now starting to look at Florida.


109 posted on 11/04/2018 5:54:07 PM PST by DrewsMum
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To: DrewsMum

Yeah I’m taking AZ. Florida should have around 8 million votes.


110 posted on 11/04/2018 6:09:41 PM PST by Ravi
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To: LS
Hi LS, I tried my best, but it appears that AZ simply has not published turnout information by party registration prior to this year. This is the best graph I could come up with, correlating overall EV turnout relative to 2016 by Trump support:
111 posted on 11/04/2018 7:06:15 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: LS

Also, after hammering at early votes for a solid hour, my estimate just from analyzing the early vote demographic adjustments is that we are on average going to see a 3% more Republican electorate this year over 2016. That is if people vote similarly to what they did in 2016 given their demographic. This adjustment appears to be fairly consistent across all states with our best given early voting data.


112 posted on 11/04/2018 8:29:59 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: TrumpCoat

This might be what the TargetEarly people are also seeing. They have detailed demos of all EV.


113 posted on 11/05/2018 12:15:19 AM PST by Ravi
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3702509/posts?page=57#57


114 posted on 11/05/2018 1:43:29 AM PST by SunkenCiv (and btw -- https://www.gofundme.com/for-rotator-cuff-repair-surgery)
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