1stCD NH is a statistical tie. It’s a democratic pick-up with Shea-Porter retiring.
Sir, we gave to each of the seven candidates you previously mentioned.
Do you have other races you think need the nudge?
Are there no Democrats about to switch to the Republican Party like they have in previous years?
We aren’t going to lose the House.
If we flip MN 7 along with the other 2 outstate districts, we are guaranteed +1 out of MN, more likely +2 or +3 if we hold the suburban districts. I just have a hard time understanding how the Dems expect to pick up 25 in the House while losing 3-5 in the Senate. And the more stories I see like this, the more I believe that’s total media fantasy.
If I were to guess right now, I’d say GOP +4 in the Senate, and Dem +3 to +5 in the House. But I’m far from ruling out a red tide scenario with up to +9 in the Senate and positive gains for the GOP in the House. I look at the early voting, the Trump rallies, the energy on our side, and I think there’s a good possibility of that kind of scenario.
I’m still trying to see if Connecticut CD-5, the most Conservative district will flip. I think if Bob Stefanowski wins the governor race, it might.
If Minnesota’s 8th district flips (rural NE), we are going to have a good night. If both the 8th and the 7th (rural NW) flips, then we are going to have a great night.