Have any of you considered that many of these 2018 EVs were Election Day voters in 2016?
IOW, the idea, because we have an EV advantage over Democrats, that this will somehow translate into a GOP win on election day may be a very disappointing assumption, once all the vote are counted.
The same goes for the presumption that, because Blacks and Hispanics are presently 3X more favorable to President Trump than they were in 2016 Presidential Election, this will translate into down ballot wins for the GOP Congress.
You have to remember that House elections are far more local and unpredictable - those increased minority approvals for Trump will be diluted by 50 states and 435 Representatives. So, none of that higher approval will necessarily translate into wins for the GOP at the Congressional level.
The problem, which I am seeing all across the board on FR, is that people are confusing a Presidential Election with a Midterm Election - and the two are entirely different animals, having no comparison whatsoever in turnout or likely results.
In nearly every election, DEMOCRATS have led early voting, and Republicans do better on election day. There is no reason for this not to be the case today.