Volusia County, FL is bellwhether. Yesterday day 1 of early voting there. Just from yesterday EV, Ignoring independents,
Reps 52.5%
Dems 47.5%
That’s a great indicator. As LS points out, dems usually take early voting. Today should be great, too, due to after church population.
Volusia totals EV plus absentee, ignoring independents,
Reps 53.9%
Dems 46.0%
Independents will go for Reps no less than 50%. Florida will stay Red by 5-8%. DeSantis maybe toward the lower, Scott the upper of that.
Thanks.
Souls to the polls I thought was a democratic thing. Are you saying that republicans participate in this too?
Pinellas, where Zero won by 10
35% D
32% R
Will be interesting to see if that is the case. Gollum has been consistently outpolling Nelson by a point or 2. I’m speculating we may actually be witnessing the Bradley Effect. We don’t hear much about the Bradley Effect anymore in post-Obama America.
For those of you too young to remember, there used to be a phenomenon wherein black political candidates on Election Day would underperform their poll numbers. This was called the “Bradley Effect” or sometimes the “Wilder Effect”. The theory was that, when talking to a pollster, a white person would feel the need virtue-signal to a pollster their intent to vote for the black guy, but then vote for the white guy on Election Day.
I think this Effect is pretty much dead and buried, however, I’m wondering if in Florida - with its much higher age demographic - if the Bradley Effect might still have some life.
This election will be a great test of that. If DeSantis ends up outperforming Scott, that would indicate to me that Bradley is alive and well in Florida.