Posted on 10/18/2018 2:49:54 AM PDT by 11th_VA
Nearly 2.6 million Florida voters are receiving mail ballots for the November election
It's still early, but there's no sign of a blue wave in the initial wave of mail ballot returns in Florida.
Figures filed Wednesday with the state show that more Republicans than Democrats are returning their mail ballots, 20 days before Election Day. Nearly 2.6 million voters have been sent mail ballots — what used to be called absentee ballots — and 554,000 arrived through Tuesday.
Republican mail ballot returns of 247,530 accounted for 45 percent of the total returns statewide, even though Republicans account for 35 percent of all voters. The Democratic returns of 207,171 accounted for 37 percent of the total, the same as the party's share of the statewide electorate.
Returns are updated daily. But if this trend continues, it means Democrats must outperform Republicans in early voting and on election day if any of the party's major candidates are to prevail on Nov. 6.
(Excerpt) Read more at tampabay.com ...
But a LOT more total votes then, right? (As one should expect in a mid-term, but still for a while we were ahead of 16 in totals)
Thanks for that piece of information. We ended with about a 60,000 lead in mail ballots returned by the end.
However there were “only” 2.75 million mail ballots returned in 2016. In this mid-term, we could have that many mail ballots returned which would mean some amount of cannibalization is occurring.
Thursday 10/20/16: REPs - 369,467, DEMs - 356,635 lead of 12,832 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.2%
Thursday 10/18/18: REPs - 301,825, DEMs - 258,727 lead of 43,098 for REPs, 44.2% to 37.9%
Fewer ballots returned this year, but a bigger lead.
The wife and I have already mailed in our ballots here in California.
I didn’t realize yesterday was the first day of early voting in NC. I’m going to vote this evening.
Republicans ended up with a lead of about 58.3k in 2016, correct? Do you have that data you can send me? If I recall Republicans pushed our lead in 2016 to around 80k-100k before it came back down a bit the last few days.
I am playing with the math a few different ways, which I can share later, thinking we end up with an advantage around 60k-80k after VBM is completed.
Two reasons for fewer total ballots returned:
1) it’s a mid-term, not a presidential election
2) according to Dem Covillon, the Panhandle is only at 36% of the 2016 total at this time due to the hurricane.
I’m guessing with the temporary voting stations, etc, eventually the walk in, election day, and absentees from these counties will get to 86% of the 2016 total.
Florida.
I’m trying to post all the daily Florida 2016 numbers I have to a website. I’ll update soon when I get that completed.
We can add each elections data for comparison going forward.
I don't think early voting is doing consecutive days this year. It's like 3 or 4 separate days spread out. You better check online before you go. I know the times are 7 to 7.
Ok thanks
So, a review of TN and MT SecState websites suggests they don’t register by party?
“I’m trying to post all the daily Florida 2016 numbers I have to a website. I’ll update soon when I get that completed.”
Ok, I posted the 2016 daily vote-by-mail numbers to this website: https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion
Later today, I’ll try to update the 2018 numbers by going back through FR postings by others.
I’ll also see if I can add daily in-person early voting to 2016.
I did take the liberty to “fix” the final 2016 vote-by-mail totals. Actually, Reps led by 64K on 11/8/2016 (eve of election). However, the Florida SOS shows a final Rep lead of 58K. That is because there were some vote-by-mail ballots in the mail (post marked, etc) that SOS included in their final numbers that weren’t in the 11/8 numbers.
That’s some awesome work!
I did try to line up the corresponding data between the election years.
So today, Thursday 10/18/2018 corresponds with Thursday 10/20/2018.
So today REPs have a lead of 43,098 at the same point in time in 2016 of a lead of 12,832.
Are you still referring to FL?
GOP lead now 3x what it was in 2016.
Yes, checkout https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion
Its still a work in progress. But details there.
Yes that’s the quick and dirty apples to apples comparison for today...
Questions for me: what do we expect turnout to be (midterm 50-55%) or presidential level (70-75%)?
That could be a turnout range of 6.5 million all the way to 9.75 million. Huge range.
How does the total ballot Requests factor into this (already 3.2 million Requests). How much cannibalizing is or is not occurring?
How many dead ballots will there be (not returned). Do those voters vote early or election day or not atall?
The enormity of these Requests is just something to behold and difficult to completely get my head around.
The exact questions to be asking.
First, remember Republicans have strongly emphasized absentee and early voting because they found that these voters tend to vote “down ticket” at a much higher rate than election day voters!
Total FL absentee requests are up by 100,000 this year. Again, we don’t know the turnout, but we do know that more people will vote absentee than ever before, and that a MAJOR section of FL (the Panhandle) will likely NOT be voting absentee or early, so I think whatever gains we see in absentees, they are NOT being cannibalized and you will still see a real surge (perhaps more than ever) on election day by the hurricane victims voting later than usual.
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