Posted on 10/17/2018 7:18:32 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
In the first poll since Hurricane Michael devastated the Panhandle — and changed the course of state politics — the race for Florida Governor is virtually tied.
Twenty days before Election Day, Democrat Andrew Gillum is at 47 percent, while Republican Ron DeSantis is at 46. However, among those who say they have already voted, DeSantis is at 49 percent, while Gillum is at 45 percent.
A similar scenario is set up for Florida’s U.S. Senate race — heading into the stretch in dead-heat fashion, according to the new survey by St. Pete Polls. Republican Gov. Rick Scott has a two-point lead over Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.
(Excerpt) Read more at floridapolitics.com ...
Confirms the vote-by-mail data...
Read the poll fine print .
They did not poll the panhandle voters ?
So they over polled what region ?
If the poll was of registered voters, this all makes sense. Republicans are leading with those who already voted.
I think this race is over. As bad as the hurricane was for some Floridians, in the long run it likely saved the state.
Still not good to be within the margin of fraud. If it ain’t close, they can’t cheat!
Yeah, most polling outfits can only report two situations:
An objective analysis (from a prog, yet) of pre-Election Day data:
https://thefloridasqueeze.com/2018/10/11/2018-florida-vote-projection-model-day-1/
Awaiting arrival of Day 7 report.
just look at our analysis also..
John morgan’s I-4 corridor, Broward, Miami-Dade?
How did the hurricane help if it affected mainly counties that vote Republican? The storm should have little effect on the voting in Tallahassee. Gadsden County, which is largely African American and votes Democrat was hit harder. But I think most of the other counties that were affected vote Republican. I am just trying to understand the dynamic here.
I’m wondering if the Bradley or Wilder Effect in coming into play here.
Quick background Both were black Democratic candidates running for Governor, Bradley in ‘82 (California) and Wilder in ‘85 (Virginia). Both were leading in the polls. Bradley lost narrowly and Wilder won narrowly.
There’s been a long running line of thinking that those polled will say they’d vote for a black candidate - but in the privacy of the voting booth do something differently.
I thought DeSantis was toast for his “monkeying around” statement.
They MSM wouldn’t lie to us, would they?
Minor correction...
In ‘85 Wilder was running for Lt Governor, not Governor.
agreed. don’t poo poo a tight race.
Curious to see how the hurricane will affect things on the red side of the ledger...the panhandle is always so reliably red. and, now most of those souls are just struggling to recover, probably not focusing on the election.
Sure.
1. While it hit “mostly red areas,” it also hit Tallahassee, Gillum’s Island’s home base.
2. Overall, both DeSantis and Scott are getting high marks statewide for their response to the hurricane. So the statewide effect is now outweighing the dampening down of votes in the red counties.
3.Scott is making outstanding efforts to ensure that those affected by the hurricane vote. I’m guessing “normal” turnout there may be down 5%.
4. LARGE numbers of absentees were already mailed. (100k more requests this year than in 2016, and Rs are ahead of their pace in 2016 in both requests and returns).
I think FL 8is in the bag now.
The real “honest-to-goodness” truth.....Both Ron DeSantis & Rick Scott will easily win the Florida, Governorship (DeSantis), and Senate (Scott) seat in Florida.
Why? Democrat, Andrew Gillum is politically poison & toxic to boot. The Florida Political Gig, Game is over. GOP will rule Florida across the board!!!
Preponderance of polling in Orlando and Miami-Dade regions.
While there is a high concentration of population in both those areas, they do not reflect Florida as a whole, as the representation from there is not proportionate. The Panhandle, oddly enough, is not nearly that densely populated, and while the vote there is somewhat lopsided to the conservative side, it comes pretty much as an afterthought. More like Georgia or Alabama than the rest of the state. They don’t call that coastal region the “Redneck Riviera” for no reason, you understand
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